Maxine Udall talks about the morality and microeconomics of heath care. Yes, some physicians accustomed to their privileges might leave the profession before health care reform becomes a reality. It's a free country: for every one who leaves there are a hundred who would happily take his place, either as physicians (once we remove the artificial limitations and rent-seeking from medical schools*) or as substitutes such as nurses or physicians assistants who can effectively treat many conditions.
*Not all strictures imposed by medical schools are artificial and pragmatically unjustified. But some clearly are, and serve only to artificially restrict the supply of physicians.
Everyone talks about the iron laws of economics until it's their professional privilege that's on the chopping block. I know whereof I speak: my own middle-class privilege was completely destroyed by economics. When I was young, it happened that I had real talent at computer programming. Then, the demand for people who could just turn the damn things on and make them do something far exceeded the supply, and those of us with demonstrated competence could make quite a bit of money. What we didn't do was artificially restrict the supply; by the time we clued ourselves in to how the capitalist system actually operates and started creating expensive and arbitrarily limited credentialing mechanisms, it was far too late: the invisible hand corrected the imbalance between supply and demand and for all but the most prestigious few, programming became a working class profession with working class wages. (And working class wages today ain't squat.)
Author Archive for The Barefoot Bum
It is uncontroversial — or at least correct — to note that scientific naturalism requires some metaphysical structure. It not the case, however, that the specific idea of causality is part of that metaphysical structure. And not only is induction not part of the metaphysical structure of science, it is not even a valid inference rule in scientific naturalism.
Popper* gives us a useful definition of "metaphysical" in the Logic of Scientific Discovery. A metaphysical statement is a meaningful statement that is not in principle falsifiable by experience. Not all unfalsifiable statements are metaphysical — some are simply meaningless — but all metaphysical statements are, by definition, unfalsifiable. Note that this definition is itself metaphysical: the definition is (or at least appears to be) meaningful, but there is in principle no empirical observation we could make that could falsify it.
Another example of a metaphysical system is the set of rules that define the game of chess. There is no empirical observation that could, for example, falsify the rule that bishops must move diagonally in a straight line. If we observe a player move his bishop horizontally, we can conclude only that either the player has made an error or that she is not playing chess. (Note that the statement that "human beings consider chess to constitute thus-and-such rules" is a scientific statement: we can observe how human beings define chess, and in principle falsify the statement.)
Popper departs here from the Logical Positivists, the latter assert that all statements neither verifiable nor falsifiable by experience are not meaningful in any sense. Popper in contrast admits that unfalsifiable statements can be meaningful.
Popper departs as well from a common theme in philosophy, the theme of metaphysics as a synonym for ontology. In his demarcation criterion, Popper establishes a metaphysical "rule" of scientific naturalism: unfalsifiable statements are ontologically meaningless. If a statement is empirically unfalsifiable, is is for that reason categorically not a statement about the world. If it can be charitably interpreted only as looking like a statement about the world, then it is nonsense — "not even wrong" — having at best only the appearance of meaning. This principle does not deny all meaning of unfalsifiable statements, only a specific kind of meaning.
In a similar sense, the statement, "The bisectors of two angles of a triangle intersect inside the triangle," is a meaningless statement of Euclidean geometry. It's not true, it's not false. Specifically, the word "inside" is a term without referent anywhere in Euclid's axioms. We have to create a different context — e.g. analytic geometry — to make the statement meaningful and true.
Thus scientific naturalism — being itself metaphysical — is not a statement about the world. It is, in essence, a language game we play. One is free to play any language game one chooses, including religious language games and the language game of calling religious people jackasses whose views on reality and morality are at best ridiculous and at worst malevolent.
Popper's construction gives us a metaphysical framework to rigorously discuss meaningful ontological statements — i.e. statements about the world — that are not directly empirically observable. We cannot, as Hume noted, observe causality: all we can observe is that one event usually or always follows another in time. But we can falsify a causal hypothesis: We can hypothesize that event X causes event Y, i.e. that event Y will always follow event X. If we were ever to empirically observe that event Y did not follow event X, our hypothesis would be proven false; we must change something: the hypothesis itself or something in its theoretical framework.
Scientific naturalism does not deny the meaning or truth of statements that in a sense transcend empirical observation, i.e. statements whose truth or falsity we cannot directly determine by observation. Scientific naturalism not only admits statements that "transcend" empirical observation, but gives us a rigorous way of determining which transcendent statements are meaningful and a rigorous way of at least rejecting meaningful empirically transcendent statements as definitely false.
Of course, scientific naturalism does deny the meaning of statements that transcend empirical observation in a different sense, i.e. statements interpreted as about the world that cannot in principle be falsified by empirical observation.
Intelligent Design is an excellent example. At first, to their credit,cdesign proponentsists ID advocates proposed empirically falsifiable statements: there were structures — the bacterial flagellum, for example, or blood clotting mechanisms* — that could not have evolved (except perhaps through wildly improbable coincidence) through the unintelligent, purposeless and intentionless mechanisms of uncorrelated heritable variation and natural selection. However, as the candidate structures have been shown to have a plausible evolutionary history, ID advocates have retreated to unfalsifiability: perhaps there is an intelligent designer whose work cannot be empirically distinguished in any way from the work of unintelligent mechanisms. To the scientific naturalist, such a statement is not just outside the boundaries of science, it is outside the boundaries of meaning. It cannot be a statement about the world, it is not even wrong, it is no more meaningful than the assertion that all gnorts are kerfibble.
Scientific naturalism excludes some statements as meaningless, statements that appear to have meaning, that are grammatically correct, that do indeed activate our minds in interesting and complicated ways. Perhaps it's the case that scientific naturalism is simply limited, in the same sense that Euclidean geometry is limited and cannot discuss concepts such as "inside" or "outside". There's no way to prove that scientific naturalism is not limited, that statements rejected by scientific naturalism cannot have meaning and truth in some other system.
The best we can say — and it's pretty good — is that scientific naturalism has in a couple of centuries given us a profound understanding of the physical universe from the cosmological to the subatomic, a technological civilization that can feed, clothe and house more than six billion people and has at least the potential for real humanistic justice and universal prosperity, and is beginning to crack the mysteries of consciousness and human behavior. In contrast, after more than two millennia religion has given us nothing but mystical mumbo-jumbo, ridiculous self-serving and self-aggrandizing fairy tales, repression, oppression and the near-constant support of even the most monstrous and abhorrent ruling classes that would maintain the privilege and status of the priesthood.
Popper* gives us a useful definition of "metaphysical" in the Logic of Scientific Discovery. A metaphysical statement is a meaningful statement that is not in principle falsifiable by experience. Not all unfalsifiable statements are metaphysical — some are simply meaningless — but all metaphysical statements are, by definition, unfalsifiable. Note that this definition is itself metaphysical: the definition is (or at least appears to be) meaningful, but there is in principle no empirical observation we could make that could falsify it.
*I invoke Popper here not to establish authority but to give credit.
Another example of a metaphysical system is the set of rules that define the game of chess. There is no empirical observation that could, for example, falsify the rule that bishops must move diagonally in a straight line. If we observe a player move his bishop horizontally, we can conclude only that either the player has made an error or that she is not playing chess. (Note that the statement that "human beings consider chess to constitute thus-and-such rules" is a scientific statement: we can observe how human beings define chess, and in principle falsify the statement.)
Popper departs here from the Logical Positivists, the latter assert that all statements neither verifiable nor falsifiable by experience are not meaningful in any sense. Popper in contrast admits that unfalsifiable statements can be meaningful.
Popper departs as well from a common theme in philosophy, the theme of metaphysics as a synonym for ontology. In his demarcation criterion, Popper establishes a metaphysical "rule" of scientific naturalism: unfalsifiable statements are ontologically meaningless. If a statement is empirically unfalsifiable, is is for that reason categorically not a statement about the world. If it can be charitably interpreted only as looking like a statement about the world, then it is nonsense — "not even wrong" — having at best only the appearance of meaning. This principle does not deny all meaning of unfalsifiable statements, only a specific kind of meaning.
In a similar sense, the statement, "The bisectors of two angles of a triangle intersect inside the triangle," is a meaningless statement of Euclidean geometry. It's not true, it's not false. Specifically, the word "inside" is a term without referent anywhere in Euclid's axioms. We have to create a different context — e.g. analytic geometry — to make the statement meaningful and true.
Thus scientific naturalism — being itself metaphysical — is not a statement about the world. It is, in essence, a language game we play. One is free to play any language game one chooses, including religious language games and the language game of calling religious people jackasses whose views on reality and morality are at best ridiculous and at worst malevolent.
Popper's construction gives us a metaphysical framework to rigorously discuss meaningful ontological statements — i.e. statements about the world — that are not directly empirically observable. We cannot, as Hume noted, observe causality: all we can observe is that one event usually or always follows another in time. But we can falsify a causal hypothesis: We can hypothesize that event X causes event Y, i.e. that event Y will always follow event X. If we were ever to empirically observe that event Y did not follow event X, our hypothesis would be proven false; we must change something: the hypothesis itself or something in its theoretical framework.
Scientific naturalism does not deny the meaning or truth of statements that in a sense transcend empirical observation, i.e. statements whose truth or falsity we cannot directly determine by observation. Scientific naturalism not only admits statements that "transcend" empirical observation, but gives us a rigorous way of determining which transcendent statements are meaningful and a rigorous way of at least rejecting meaningful empirically transcendent statements as definitely false.
Of course, scientific naturalism does deny the meaning of statements that transcend empirical observation in a different sense, i.e. statements interpreted as about the world that cannot in principle be falsified by empirical observation.
Intelligent Design is an excellent example. At first, to their credit,
*The triviality of the proposed structures is itself suspicious.
Scientific naturalism excludes some statements as meaningless, statements that appear to have meaning, that are grammatically correct, that do indeed activate our minds in interesting and complicated ways. Perhaps it's the case that scientific naturalism is simply limited, in the same sense that Euclidean geometry is limited and cannot discuss concepts such as "inside" or "outside". There's no way to prove that scientific naturalism is not limited, that statements rejected by scientific naturalism cannot have meaning and truth in some other system.
The best we can say — and it's pretty good — is that scientific naturalism has in a couple of centuries given us a profound understanding of the physical universe from the cosmological to the subatomic, a technological civilization that can feed, clothe and house more than six billion people and has at least the potential for real humanistic justice and universal prosperity, and is beginning to crack the mysteries of consciousness and human behavior. In contrast, after more than two millennia religion has given us nothing but mystical mumbo-jumbo, ridiculous self-serving and self-aggrandizing fairy tales, repression, oppression and the near-constant support of even the most monstrous and abhorrent ruling classes that would maintain the privilege and status of the priesthood.
I've played and enjoyed two games where economics play an important role: Global Conquest and Stars!
Global Conquest has a "money" economic model. An infantry unit costs 25 "bucks" to raise; a typical city creates 8 bucks per turn. You can save bucks: If a city produces nothing for four turns, you can create an infantry unit on the fifth turn with 7 bucks left over. In Global Conquest, therefore, money represents real stored-up productivity.
Stars! on the other hand has a "resource" economic model. You have people on your planets, and each person produces "resource" each turn. You can also build factories; although each factory nominally produces additional resources of its own, each factory must be staffed: only as many factories as you have people will produce resources. Therefore, we can say that factories increase the absolute productivity of the people. Most importantly, you cannot store resources in Stars!. If you don't use the resources available in a turn to make something, the resources are wasted. You can't move resources either (you can move people): you can't combine the resources of two planets to produce a battleship in half the time.
One feature makes Stars! economically interesting is that you also need raw materials to make things, and the cost to mine a unit of raw materials is different on different planets. Therefore, a considerable amount of your time is spent moving raw materials from planets where materials are cheap and/or abundant to those where they are expensive and/or scarce. (One small weakness of the game is that you cannot arbitrarily reallocate resources from manufacturing to mining even at lowered efficiency: the supply curve for raw materials has a hard upper bound.)
It seems that while people in some sense know that money is an abstraction, emotionally and viscerally they think of money in the Global Conquest sense: as actual concrete productivity that has been stored up and can be used as needed. We can see this kind of thinking when we talk about the national economy as a whole: in some sense people say we don't have enough money to pay for this, that or the other (Social Security, socialized medicine, the war in Iraq, etc.). Indeed we can confidently infer that any professional economist who advocates reducing government spending during the presentdepression recession while actual resources stand idle (i.e. millions of people are unemployed) is either conflating money with resources or hoping his audience will do so.
Global Conquest has a "money" economic model. An infantry unit costs 25 "bucks" to raise; a typical city creates 8 bucks per turn. You can save bucks: If a city produces nothing for four turns, you can create an infantry unit on the fifth turn with 7 bucks left over. In Global Conquest, therefore, money represents real stored-up productivity.
Stars! on the other hand has a "resource" economic model. You have people on your planets, and each person produces "resource" each turn. You can also build factories; although each factory nominally produces additional resources of its own, each factory must be staffed: only as many factories as you have people will produce resources. Therefore, we can say that factories increase the absolute productivity of the people. Most importantly, you cannot store resources in Stars!. If you don't use the resources available in a turn to make something, the resources are wasted. You can't move resources either (you can move people): you can't combine the resources of two planets to produce a battleship in half the time.
One feature makes Stars! economically interesting is that you also need raw materials to make things, and the cost to mine a unit of raw materials is different on different planets. Therefore, a considerable amount of your time is spent moving raw materials from planets where materials are cheap and/or abundant to those where they are expensive and/or scarce. (One small weakness of the game is that you cannot arbitrarily reallocate resources from manufacturing to mining even at lowered efficiency: the supply curve for raw materials has a hard upper bound.)
It seems that while people in some sense know that money is an abstraction, emotionally and viscerally they think of money in the Global Conquest sense: as actual concrete productivity that has been stored up and can be used as needed. We can see this kind of thinking when we talk about the national economy as a whole: in some sense people say we don't have enough money to pay for this, that or the other (Social Security, socialized medicine, the war in Iraq, etc.). Indeed we can confidently infer that any professional economist who advocates reducing government spending during the present
Tim Kowal responds to my criticism of his post chiding atheists' "intellectual procrastination":
But of course there is something. There were atheists before scientific naturalism, but it is no surprise that atheism has flourished under scientific naturalism, which does not just recognize the failures and vacuity of what passes for "epistemology" in religion but gives us a powerful way of explaining features of the world both gross and subtle in a more sophisticated way than invoking magic.
Even an inattentive reader should note the glaring contradiction in Kowal's comment: in almost the same breath he complains that atheists "don't give an account" of knowledge while also undermining the account we do give, i.e. empiricism. Just this discrepancy alone forces the reader to choose which of two uncomfortable interpretations is the most charitable: either Kowal is insane, he is simply too stupid to detect this rather obvious contradiction, or he is intentionally trying to deceive his readers. If he does not like the epistemic account that scientific naturalism does in fact give, let him say so: to critique an account he does not acknowledge the existence of too greatly shocks the mind of those unpracticed in religious doublethink and cognitive dissonance.
Worse yet, Kowal must reach decades back to the beginning of the 20th century (or perhaps to the middle of the 18th) to find a natural epistemology he can criticize with cognitive abilities deficient in competence or honesty.
It is simply false that modern scientific naturalism — the sort of naturalism practiced for centuries by actual scientists and explicitly described by at least some philosophers of science for decades — "reject[s] any truth that is not empirically observable." Even the most misguided of the logical positivists and naive empiricists would not have gone so far: even they admitted truths derived from an empirical foundation, even if those derived truths were themselves not empirically observable.
But of course problems with the naive empiricism of the 20th century were anticipated in the 18th by David Hume (objections that Kowal mentions without crediting Hume, an atheist). We cannot directly observe either causality or consistency over time, and much to the dismay of the naive empiricists, we cannot rigorously deduce these features of the world from the directly observable evidence. (There are a lot of other problems with logical positivism and naive empiricism, not the least of which is that the systems themselves are neither observable nor deducible from observation.)
Philosophers are little better than theologians, and it is unsurprising that anyone who reads only philosophy might think that this naive view constitutes the core of scientific thought. There are intelligent philosophers who have propounded more sophisticated concepts, but their work is buried in a mound of bullshit exceeded in scope and elaboration only by theology. The atheist criticism that finding the diamonds of theological sensibility is simply too difficult to be worth the trouble applies equally to philosophy*. Kowal's misunderstanding of scientific naturalism is excusable and correctable in a way that his "bad food and not enough of it" contradiction about the very existence of a natural epistemology is not.
Modern scientific naturalism shares two features of theology. First, both systems make guesses about how the world might be. We do not directly know the world is causal, and we cannot (as we have discovered) deduce the world is causal from what we do directly know. In order to talk about causality, we have to introduce the concept without knowledge or even any real confidence as whether it's actually true. Second, despite their protestations of universal truth, scientific naturalism and theology are dynamic: one way or another, when these systems fail to correspond to the world of experience, both actually change.
But — and this is a very substantial but indeed — from these similarities scientific naturalism departs radically from religious faith. In religious faith, our core guesses about God (and thus God's world) are upheld "come what may". Our articles of faith are utterly immune from change (until an authority changes them). Anything and everything else might change — we might even deny experience itself (who are you going to believe?the Pope God, or your lying eyes?) — but our articles of faith are immune from public criticism.
Under scientific naturalism, however, none of our guesses are immune from criticism. Everything is, at least formally, subject to change. Similarly, no authority can declare any guess as immune from change; no one requires the permission of any authority to change any part of any theory.
More importantly, a theory that predicts more (in a specific sense) is, under scientific naturalism, considered worse than a theory that predicts less. A theory that predicts that we will see an object move is worse than a theory that predicts that we will see an object move in a particular direction at a particular velocity. The first theory predicts more: our theory is consistent with observation if we see the object move up or down, left or right, fast or slow; the second theory predicts less: movement in one direction only and at one velocity only.
In contrast, it is no fault under theology if our core faith predicts more or less. God's love is equally compatible with slavery or abolition; His hatred of homosexuality equally compatible with loving gay marriage as with discord; His contempt of women equally compatible with women's demonstrable competence as with their failure; His divine creation equally compatible with life-friendly physical law as with constant miraculous intervention; His intention to create a race of beings to worship and adore Him equally compatible with a 6,000 year-old universe with the Earth at its center as with a universe of such cosmic scale and scope that all of human history is no more significant than the mold in my shower is to all of terrestrial civilization.
Our scientific naturalistic theories about the world are true because they explain and predict this world; they are valuable because they predict only this world. Theology is compatible with any old world we might find ourselves in: change the laws of physics, remove them altogether, transform billions of light years of galaxies, clusters and superclusters to a uniform distribution of a hundred stars or even lanterns in a quintessential firmament, chop scores of elements from the periodic table and rearrange them with a throw of the dice, and not one word of the vast edifice of theological bullshit created over the last ten thousand years would have to change.
Kowal admits that theology and religion lack any epistemic system. In his own words, all we can do is organize and systematize all the contradictory models and theories about the world: we can do nothing to choose between these theories other than a handwaving mention of some vague debate (a "debate" that throughout history has all too often been conducted through the media of murder, rape, slavery, torture, conquest, oppression and genocide). Indeed scientific naturalism has developed a way to choose between these models and — while Kowal complains in that we have no way to choose — he complains in the same breath that our epistemic system is fatally flawed because it does choose, and it chooses against the arrant superstitions and vacuous bullshit of theology.
When Glendower famously boasted, "I can call spirits from the vasty deep," Hotspur astutely retorted, "Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they come when you do call for them?" Answers are easy: I can answer any question, or so can any man; but are they true? Theologians can indeed answer any question, but we suffer not from a lack of answers but from a surfeit. We know that scientific materialism can not just answer some questions, but we can know that those answers and only those answers are true. If, by applying some distinction we are left with some questions entirely unanswered, with every candidate so far rejection, that is but a small price to pay for knowing that other answers really are true. Answers are easy: we can always think up more answers and test them out.
It would of course be disingenuous or at least incomplete to extol the virtues of scientific naturalism without mentioning legitimate philosophical objections.
Science is, of course, a human endeavor, and its pursuit susceptible to the ordinary intellectual and moral vices typical of human beings. Our scientific knowledge is dependent on what we choose to study, the kinds of knowledge we choose to pursue, and our answers are dependent on the questions we choose to ask. Science is no universal panacea, a machine we can put questions into and be confident of always or even often get true answers. The best we can say about science is that sometimes it makes some distinctions. But just sometimes is incomparably better than never, and that sometimes is on the basis of ordinary logical thought and the evidence of our senses, not the pronouncements of ridiculous men in silly hats or the elimination of dissent by the sword and the prison cell.
Strictly speaking, scientific naturalism does not separate theories into true and false, it separates theories into definitely false, not definitely false and bullshit: "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." We cannot know the theory of universal gravitation with the certainty we know that "there are infinitely many prime numbers" is a theorem of the axioms of arithmetic. If for this reason you don't want to label scientific naturalism as knowledge, so much worse for your view of knowledge. When you can demonstrate the truth of General Relativity or Quantum Mechanics with deductive certainty, let me know. Until then, I'll happily trade certainty of nothing for confidence in not just something but quite a lot while you play solipsistic games you could pursue without distraction if you put out your eyes and stopped up your ears.
We cannot apply scientific naturalism to scientific naturalism without circularity. But scientific naturalism as a method is not itself a theory about the world; it is simply a language game we play, a game we play not because we can somehow prove it itself is "true" but because we find it useful, a utility that — because we are uninterested in the what appears to be its the sole utility for justifying abominable behavior — that religion has never and apparently cannot provide.
Indeed it is the theologians whom we must accuse of intellectual procrastination. They have, to be sure, been diligent about providing answers, but after ten thousand years we are still waiting for them to give us a way — any way, however imperfect, that appeals not to our prejudice but our reason — to separate the the meaningful answers from the bullshit and the true answers from the false.
I'm never encouraged when readers cannot read and understand simple declarative sentences in the English language. But after blogging for more than 30 months and discussing religion and philosophy on the internet for a decade, I'm rarely surprised. Much as I dislike repeating myself, I will do so. Even if it were true (which it's not) that "Atheists... don't give an account of how they can know" about causation an induction, it is necessary to acknowledge that we do not have such an account before we can begin to create one. Organizing wildly contradictory religious "models" — models that give no account of knowledge more sophisticated than an invisible sky-fairy magically putting ideas into our heads — in some systematic way and leaving the resolution of those contradictions to some vague debate on unspecified grounds just avoids beginning that search for truth. Even if atheism were to bring nothing at all to the philosophical table, it would be rational and sensible to reject religious thought and admit profound ignorance. If after millennia they are unable to give us anything at all better than magical sky-fairies and consensus by the sword, then we are rationally entitled to explicitly acknowledge we are starting from nothing at all.We are certain some element or elements of a theory — a set of statements about the world — are false if the theory entails false statements about observation.There cannot be any "true" statement about reality once one rejects the concept that truth can transcends the empirical world. You are correct that there are as many models of truth and reality as there are religions--more, even. This is a debate for the respective adherents to those models. But to reject any truth that is not empirically observable is to cut oneself off at the knees. At the very least, atheists must posit that objects in the world have causal relationships with one another, that the future will resemble the past, and so on. Religion is simply an organized, systematic way to organize these transcendental truths.
Atheists certainly don't reject causation and induction, but they don't give an account for how they can know it. They simply refuse to acknowledge the transcendental truths they rely upon. This is disingenuous.
But of course there is something. There were atheists before scientific naturalism, but it is no surprise that atheism has flourished under scientific naturalism, which does not just recognize the failures and vacuity of what passes for "epistemology" in religion but gives us a powerful way of explaining features of the world both gross and subtle in a more sophisticated way than invoking magic.
Even an inattentive reader should note the glaring contradiction in Kowal's comment: in almost the same breath he complains that atheists "don't give an account" of knowledge while also undermining the account we do give, i.e. empiricism. Just this discrepancy alone forces the reader to choose which of two uncomfortable interpretations is the most charitable: either Kowal is insane, he is simply too stupid to detect this rather obvious contradiction, or he is intentionally trying to deceive his readers. If he does not like the epistemic account that scientific naturalism does in fact give, let him say so: to critique an account he does not acknowledge the existence of too greatly shocks the mind of those unpracticed in religious doublethink and cognitive dissonance.
Worse yet, Kowal must reach decades back to the beginning of the 20th century (or perhaps to the middle of the 18th) to find a natural epistemology he can criticize with cognitive abilities deficient in competence or honesty.
It is simply false that modern scientific naturalism — the sort of naturalism practiced for centuries by actual scientists and explicitly described by at least some philosophers of science for decades — "reject[s] any truth that is not empirically observable." Even the most misguided of the logical positivists and naive empiricists would not have gone so far: even they admitted truths derived from an empirical foundation, even if those derived truths were themselves not empirically observable.
But of course problems with the naive empiricism of the 20th century were anticipated in the 18th by David Hume (objections that Kowal mentions without crediting Hume, an atheist). We cannot directly observe either causality or consistency over time, and much to the dismay of the naive empiricists, we cannot rigorously deduce these features of the world from the directly observable evidence. (There are a lot of other problems with logical positivism and naive empiricism, not the least of which is that the systems themselves are neither observable nor deducible from observation.)
Philosophers are little better than theologians, and it is unsurprising that anyone who reads only philosophy might think that this naive view constitutes the core of scientific thought. There are intelligent philosophers who have propounded more sophisticated concepts, but their work is buried in a mound of bullshit exceeded in scope and elaboration only by theology. The atheist criticism that finding the diamonds of theological sensibility is simply too difficult to be worth the trouble applies equally to philosophy*. Kowal's misunderstanding of scientific naturalism is excusable and correctable in a way that his "bad food and not enough of it" contradiction about the very existence of a natural epistemology is not.
*I have for various reasons decided to go to college in my old age. Despite my interest, I've rejected philosophy as a subject of academic study: the bullshit to sense ratio is too high for me to have any hope of making a meaningful contribution to anything but the edifice of bullshit itself. There is too little bullshit in science for a person to make a substantial contribution on the basis of only clarity and honesty: science demands competence, competence I lack both the time and alas! natural talent to develop. Economics and political science seem just about right: enough bullshit that an honest man of mediocre competence can make a contribution; enough sense (I hope) that the contribution can be meaningful.
Modern scientific naturalism shares two features of theology. First, both systems make guesses about how the world might be. We do not directly know the world is causal, and we cannot (as we have discovered) deduce the world is causal from what we do directly know. In order to talk about causality, we have to introduce the concept without knowledge or even any real confidence as whether it's actually true. Second, despite their protestations of universal truth, scientific naturalism and theology are dynamic: one way or another, when these systems fail to correspond to the world of experience, both actually change.
But — and this is a very substantial but indeed — from these similarities scientific naturalism departs radically from religious faith. In religious faith, our core guesses about God (and thus God's world) are upheld "come what may". Our articles of faith are utterly immune from change (until an authority changes them). Anything and everything else might change — we might even deny experience itself (who are you going to believe?
Under scientific naturalism, however, none of our guesses are immune from criticism. Everything is, at least formally, subject to change. Similarly, no authority can declare any guess as immune from change; no one requires the permission of any authority to change any part of any theory.
More importantly, a theory that predicts more (in a specific sense) is, under scientific naturalism, considered worse than a theory that predicts less. A theory that predicts that we will see an object move is worse than a theory that predicts that we will see an object move in a particular direction at a particular velocity. The first theory predicts more: our theory is consistent with observation if we see the object move up or down, left or right, fast or slow; the second theory predicts less: movement in one direction only and at one velocity only.
In contrast, it is no fault under theology if our core faith predicts more or less. God's love is equally compatible with slavery or abolition; His hatred of homosexuality equally compatible with loving gay marriage as with discord; His contempt of women equally compatible with women's demonstrable competence as with their failure; His divine creation equally compatible with life-friendly physical law as with constant miraculous intervention; His intention to create a race of beings to worship and adore Him equally compatible with a 6,000 year-old universe with the Earth at its center as with a universe of such cosmic scale and scope that all of human history is no more significant than the mold in my shower is to all of terrestrial civilization.
Our scientific naturalistic theories about the world are true because they explain and predict this world; they are valuable because they predict only this world. Theology is compatible with any old world we might find ourselves in: change the laws of physics, remove them altogether, transform billions of light years of galaxies, clusters and superclusters to a uniform distribution of a hundred stars or even lanterns in a quintessential firmament, chop scores of elements from the periodic table and rearrange them with a throw of the dice, and not one word of the vast edifice of theological bullshit created over the last ten thousand years would have to change.
Kowal admits that theology and religion lack any epistemic system. In his own words, all we can do is organize and systematize all the contradictory models and theories about the world: we can do nothing to choose between these theories other than a handwaving mention of some vague debate (a "debate" that throughout history has all too often been conducted through the media of murder, rape, slavery, torture, conquest, oppression and genocide). Indeed scientific naturalism has developed a way to choose between these models and — while Kowal complains in that we have no way to choose — he complains in the same breath that our epistemic system is fatally flawed because it does choose, and it chooses against the arrant superstitions and vacuous bullshit of theology.
When Glendower famously boasted, "I can call spirits from the vasty deep," Hotspur astutely retorted, "Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they come when you do call for them?" Answers are easy: I can answer any question, or so can any man; but are they true? Theologians can indeed answer any question, but we suffer not from a lack of answers but from a surfeit. We know that scientific materialism can not just answer some questions, but we can know that those answers and only those answers are true. If, by applying some distinction we are left with some questions entirely unanswered, with every candidate so far rejection, that is but a small price to pay for knowing that other answers really are true. Answers are easy: we can always think up more answers and test them out.
It would of course be disingenuous or at least incomplete to extol the virtues of scientific naturalism without mentioning legitimate philosophical objections.
Science is, of course, a human endeavor, and its pursuit susceptible to the ordinary intellectual and moral vices typical of human beings. Our scientific knowledge is dependent on what we choose to study, the kinds of knowledge we choose to pursue, and our answers are dependent on the questions we choose to ask. Science is no universal panacea, a machine we can put questions into and be confident of always or even often get true answers. The best we can say about science is that sometimes it makes some distinctions. But just sometimes is incomparably better than never, and that sometimes is on the basis of ordinary logical thought and the evidence of our senses, not the pronouncements of ridiculous men in silly hats or the elimination of dissent by the sword and the prison cell.
Strictly speaking, scientific naturalism does not separate theories into true and false, it separates theories into definitely false, not definitely false and bullshit: "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." We cannot know the theory of universal gravitation with the certainty we know that "there are infinitely many prime numbers" is a theorem of the axioms of arithmetic. If for this reason you don't want to label scientific naturalism as knowledge, so much worse for your view of knowledge. When you can demonstrate the truth of General Relativity or Quantum Mechanics with deductive certainty, let me know. Until then, I'll happily trade certainty of nothing for confidence in not just something but quite a lot while you play solipsistic games you could pursue without distraction if you put out your eyes and stopped up your ears.
We cannot apply scientific naturalism to scientific naturalism without circularity. But scientific naturalism as a method is not itself a theory about the world; it is simply a language game we play, a game we play not because we can somehow prove it itself is "true" but because we find it useful, a utility that — because we are uninterested in the what appears to be its the sole utility for justifying abominable behavior — that religion has never and apparently cannot provide.
Indeed it is the theologians whom we must accuse of intellectual procrastination. They have, to be sure, been diligent about providing answers, but after ten thousand years we are still waiting for them to give us a way — any way, however imperfect, that appeals not to our prejudice but our reason — to separate the the meaningful answers from the bullshit and the true answers from the false.
I haven't yet come to any firm conclusions, but I'm beginning to think about the political/economic situation over the last 80-90 years as a struggle not between factions of the capitalist ruling class, but a true class struggle between the true capitalist "rentier" class and the professional/managerial class.
Tim Kowal chides atheists' "intellectual procrastination":
It takes a little experience to detect Kowal's equivocation in the above quotation. An explanation in this context is an ontological statement: it is a description of how the world actually is and how it works. An explanation is not an epistemological statement: it is not a statement about how we know whether one explanation or another is actually true, whether one description or another actually corresponds to reality. When atheists reject religious "explanations" we are sacking not religious epistemology, but religious ontology, and we are sacking their ontology in part because it scientific epistemology rejects it.
Indeed we cannot sack religious epistemology because the religious simply don't have one: none of them ever talk about how we can have a rigorous, determinable and shared method of separating statements into true and false*. Drill down to the fundamentals of any religious "explanation" of the world and its primary justification will be: thus-and-so is what the author happens to believe about God; if you do not already happen to share his beliefs, he will be unable to persuade you.
One person happens to believe that God is infinitely loving and powerful, and though we rarely understand, everything happens for the best. Another happens to believe that an infinitely loving and powerful God nonetheless respects our autonomy and free will. Another happens to believe that God is indifferent or unconcerned with human affairs. Another happens to believe that God is malevolent. Another happens to believe that God himself is above our parochial notions of good and evil. One happens to believe that Genesis is a literally and factually accurate account of cosmology. Another happens to believe it's more-or-less physically correct but couched in poetic language. Still another happens to believe it's allegory and metaphor having nothing whatsoever to do with the creation of the physical world.
The problem with religion is not that it fails to provide explanations. The problem is that religion provides too many explanations. We want one explanation, we want to know that that particular explanation really is correct, and we want to know it's correct even if it contradicts what we happen to believe.
Atheists don't sack religious epistemology — there isn't one. Atheists use evidentiary and scientific epistemology to sack religious ontology. Indeed that's all that scientific epistemology actually does: it's a fundamentally negative epistemology. We are certain some element or elements of a theory — a set of statements about the world — are false if the theory entails false statements about observation. (And if some theory does not entail any statements about the world that are in principle falsifiable by observation, it is not a theory: it is not about the world.)
We are not certain that those theories that survive are true, but we are astonished (in a philosophical sense) that any theories about the world survive this filter, and that usually only one theory (or a family of theories with a single identifiable essential character) survives this process: the process itself does not by definition guarantee a single result. Furthermore, we are philosophically astonished that entirely different people — with different upbringing, local culture, habits, outlook and biases — almost always come to the same conclusion.
Scientific epistemology does not quite do the job philosophers expect: they would like to see a method that, like deduction, separates individual statements into certainly true and certainly false. Scientific epistemology only separates theories-as-a-whole into definitely false and not definitely false. But half a loaf is better than none, and neither philosophy nor theology gives us anything but arbitrary Just-So stories, separating statements into what we do or do not already happen to believe, a job we do not need any epistemology at all to achieve.
Worse yet, religious "explanations" are not explanations. All they do is relabel mysteries about the world as mysteries about God.
Of course, the theist will rarely be quite so honest in his last reply. The usual response is to point to some hefty volume of incomprehensible mystical blather. It is the rare atheist who will actually read this blather, but some do, and they invariably find that the tome does not actually explain why God happens to want the world to be the way it is. There are more tricks, and a clever theist can keep a naive and gullible atheist running around in circles for decades, but it all boils down to the same thing. All of theology consists of inferring what God wants from occasionally observing how the world actually is, or more frequently from how the author wishes the world to be.
Atheism by itself is merely the position that religion and theology have themselves failed to provide satisfying explanations, and failed to provide anything bearing even a passing resemblance to a system of knowledge. They have covered their abject failures under the most immense and rococo edifice of bullshit ever conceived by the mind of man (and thus deserving a certain measure of horrified fascination). If we want to know, and not merely comfort ourselves with self-serving fantasies, we must first admit we simply do not know, and set forth on a voyage of discovery, a voyage we are by no means certain to complete or even survive.
Religion demands that we burn the ships in the harbor because we cannot complete the journey before we set out.
[W]hile one may be an atheist before he can fully “explain how and why the universe came into existence,” he is immediately and continuously under an intellectual duty to engage in providing a cogent answer to these problems. Atheism cannot be merely passive or destructive. It must fill the intellectual gap it creates, not simply revel in sacking others epistemological systems.Kowal is, of course, wrong. By rejecting notions about gods atheism does not create an intellectual gap: we merely observe that gaps religion fails to fill. We do not know for example how and why — or even if — the universe came into existence, but after examining religious "explanations" we still do not know.
It takes a little experience to detect Kowal's equivocation in the above quotation. An explanation in this context is an ontological statement: it is a description of how the world actually is and how it works. An explanation is not an epistemological statement: it is not a statement about how we know whether one explanation or another is actually true, whether one description or another actually corresponds to reality. When atheists reject religious "explanations" we are sacking not religious epistemology, but religious ontology, and we are sacking their ontology in part because it scientific epistemology rejects it.
Indeed we cannot sack religious epistemology because the religious simply don't have one: none of them ever talk about how we can have a rigorous, determinable and shared method of separating statements into true and false*. Drill down to the fundamentals of any religious "explanation" of the world and its primary justification will be: thus-and-so is what the author happens to believe about God; if you do not already happen to share his beliefs, he will be unable to persuade you.
*If you kill everyone who disagrees, I suppose you will generate a consensus of what people believe — or at least admit — to be true.
One person happens to believe that God is infinitely loving and powerful, and though we rarely understand, everything happens for the best. Another happens to believe that an infinitely loving and powerful God nonetheless respects our autonomy and free will. Another happens to believe that God is indifferent or unconcerned with human affairs. Another happens to believe that God is malevolent. Another happens to believe that God himself is above our parochial notions of good and evil. One happens to believe that Genesis is a literally and factually accurate account of cosmology. Another happens to believe it's more-or-less physically correct but couched in poetic language. Still another happens to believe it's allegory and metaphor having nothing whatsoever to do with the creation of the physical world.
The problem with religion is not that it fails to provide explanations. The problem is that religion provides too many explanations. We want one explanation, we want to know that that particular explanation really is correct, and we want to know it's correct even if it contradicts what we happen to believe.
Atheists don't sack religious epistemology — there isn't one. Atheists use evidentiary and scientific epistemology to sack religious ontology. Indeed that's all that scientific epistemology actually does: it's a fundamentally negative epistemology. We are certain some element or elements of a theory — a set of statements about the world — are false if the theory entails false statements about observation. (And if some theory does not entail any statements about the world that are in principle falsifiable by observation, it is not a theory: it is not about the world.)
We are not certain that those theories that survive are true, but we are astonished (in a philosophical sense) that any theories about the world survive this filter, and that usually only one theory (or a family of theories with a single identifiable essential character) survives this process: the process itself does not by definition guarantee a single result. Furthermore, we are philosophically astonished that entirely different people — with different upbringing, local culture, habits, outlook and biases — almost always come to the same conclusion.
Scientific epistemology does not quite do the job philosophers expect: they would like to see a method that, like deduction, separates individual statements into certainly true and certainly false. Scientific epistemology only separates theories-as-a-whole into definitely false and not definitely false. But half a loaf is better than none, and neither philosophy nor theology gives us anything but arbitrary Just-So stories, separating statements into what we do or do not already happen to believe, a job we do not need any epistemology at all to achieve.
Worse yet, religious "explanations" are not explanations. All they do is relabel mysteries about the world as mysteries about God.
Theist: Why is the world the way it is instead of somehow different?
Atheist: I dunno. The world just happens to be the way it is.
T: That's no explanation at all!
A: Perhaps not. Do you have something better?
T: Of course! The world is the way it is because God wanted it this way.
A: Why did God want the world to be the way it is instead of somehow different?
T: I dunno. God just happens to want what He wants.
Of course, the theist will rarely be quite so honest in his last reply. The usual response is to point to some hefty volume of incomprehensible mystical blather. It is the rare atheist who will actually read this blather, but some do, and they invariably find that the tome does not actually explain why God happens to want the world to be the way it is. There are more tricks, and a clever theist can keep a naive and gullible atheist running around in circles for decades, but it all boils down to the same thing. All of theology consists of inferring what God wants from occasionally observing how the world actually is, or more frequently from how the author wishes the world to be.
Atheism by itself is merely the position that religion and theology have themselves failed to provide satisfying explanations, and failed to provide anything bearing even a passing resemblance to a system of knowledge. They have covered their abject failures under the most immense and rococo edifice of bullshit ever conceived by the mind of man (and thus deserving a certain measure of horrified fascination). If we want to know, and not merely comfort ourselves with self-serving fantasies, we must first admit we simply do not know, and set forth on a voyage of discovery, a voyage we are by no means certain to complete or even survive.
Religion demands that we burn the ships in the harbor because we cannot complete the journey before we set out.
A really good article on evolution by the inestimable PZ Myers: It's more than genes, it's networks and systems:
and hundreds of other pathways like it, then there's simply no excuse for economists to complain about complexity.
What's left out in the 101 story, and in creationist tales, is that: evolution is about populations, so many changes go on in parallel; selectable traits are usually the product of networks of genes, so there are rarely single alleles that can be categorized as the effector of change; and genes and gene networks are plastic or responsive to the environment. All of these complications make the actual story more complicated and interesting, and also, perhaps to your surprise, make evolutionary change faster and more powerful.If biologists can figure out this:
and hundreds of other pathways like it, then there's simply no excuse for economists to complain about complexity.
A reader alerts me to the following article: Factory Defies Sweatshop Label, but Can It Thrive?:
As a communist, I'm not really impressed.
Communism has a moral dimension, but communism is not fundamentally about morality. Egregious and obvious mistreatment of the workers by the capitalists is definitely bad, but communism does not exist primarily to ameliorate or even eliminate these abuses. Even if the worst abuses were to disappear entirely, the case for communism would still exist. (Fewer abuses would make communism a much tougher to sell, but I'd happily make that trade-off; I just don't think it's in the cards.)
The recent financial collapse and world-wide recession that still threatens to fall into outright depression (by capitalist standards) is not the result of individual companies treating their workers poorly, and the misery the present economic circumstances are causing today to tens of millions in the US and billions around the world are not because capitalists have increase the active and intentional mistreatment of their workers.
The fundamental problems with capitalism — the problems that communism purports to address — are its economic limitations and inherent positive-feedback instabilities. These fundamental economic problems cause far more misery, suffering and death than any petty sadism encouraged by the inequalities of the capitalist system.
The argument for communism vs. capitalism is similar in tone to the argument for scientific medicine vs. shamanism or faith healing. In the latter case, it fundamentally doesn't matter that faith healing sometimes works (which it does). It fundamentally doesn't matter even that most faith healers know they're charlatans and frauds and many actually make people worse: we don't want to get rid of the worst of the faith healers, we want to get rid of all of them. With both cases, the point is that we could have immeasurably better lives by making deep changes rather than simply tweaking a system flawed at its roots.
Or, similarly, there were some slave-owners who treated their slaves with a measure of relative dignity and respect, but that didn't excuse slavery as an institution.
So, OK, some guys in the DR are paying $2.83 instead of $0.80 per hour. Yippie. Good for them, and I mean that sincerely. But that's still just a subsistence wage: it's still a wage that still keeps the working class subordinated to the capitalist class. The owners and bankers are still using their privileged access to capital to make a profit and pay themselves enough not just to live, not even just to enjoy luxuries, but to accumulate even more economic power and privilege. They themselves are not paying the additional wages out of their own profit and interest, they are asking us, the working class customers, to pay. (And pay we should, with a good will.)
And how sustainable is it? Remember: social change happens by selection, which is selection against. The only way a setup like this could create lasting social change is if it were to force marginal producers who didn't pay a living wage out of business, and I don't see how they could do that. If anything, it will encourage some competitors to focus even more on price competition, now that their access to the high-end market has been diminished.
There's a big difference between the race to the bottom and the struggle for the top.
The factory is a high-minded experiment, a response to appeals from myriad university officials and student activists that the garment industry stop using poverty-wage sweatshops. It has 120 employees and is owned by Knights Apparel, a privately held company based in Spartanburg, S.C., that is the leading supplier of college-logo apparel to American universities, according to the Collegiate Licensing Company.
As a communist, I'm not really impressed.
Communism has a moral dimension, but communism is not fundamentally about morality. Egregious and obvious mistreatment of the workers by the capitalists is definitely bad, but communism does not exist primarily to ameliorate or even eliminate these abuses. Even if the worst abuses were to disappear entirely, the case for communism would still exist. (Fewer abuses would make communism a much tougher to sell, but I'd happily make that trade-off; I just don't think it's in the cards.)
The recent financial collapse and world-wide recession that still threatens to fall into outright depression (by capitalist standards) is not the result of individual companies treating their workers poorly, and the misery the present economic circumstances are causing today to tens of millions in the US and billions around the world are not because capitalists have increase the active and intentional mistreatment of their workers.
The fundamental problems with capitalism — the problems that communism purports to address — are its economic limitations and inherent positive-feedback instabilities. These fundamental economic problems cause far more misery, suffering and death than any petty sadism encouraged by the inequalities of the capitalist system.
The argument for communism vs. capitalism is similar in tone to the argument for scientific medicine vs. shamanism or faith healing. In the latter case, it fundamentally doesn't matter that faith healing sometimes works (which it does). It fundamentally doesn't matter even that most faith healers know they're charlatans and frauds and many actually make people worse: we don't want to get rid of the worst of the faith healers, we want to get rid of all of them. With both cases, the point is that we could have immeasurably better lives by making deep changes rather than simply tweaking a system flawed at its roots.
Or, similarly, there were some slave-owners who treated their slaves with a measure of relative dignity and respect, but that didn't excuse slavery as an institution.
So, OK, some guys in the DR are paying $2.83 instead of $0.80 per hour. Yippie. Good for them, and I mean that sincerely. But that's still just a subsistence wage: it's still a wage that still keeps the working class subordinated to the capitalist class. The owners and bankers are still using their privileged access to capital to make a profit and pay themselves enough not just to live, not even just to enjoy luxuries, but to accumulate even more economic power and privilege. They themselves are not paying the additional wages out of their own profit and interest, they are asking us, the working class customers, to pay. (And pay we should, with a good will.)
And how sustainable is it? Remember: social change happens by selection, which is selection against. The only way a setup like this could create lasting social change is if it were to force marginal producers who didn't pay a living wage out of business, and I don't see how they could do that. If anything, it will encourage some competitors to focus even more on price competition, now that their access to the high-end market has been diminished.
There's a big difference between the race to the bottom and the struggle for the top.
Metres, kilograms, seconds. These scientific units are, of course, socially constructed abstractions. There are no metres in nature, no kilograms, no seconds: there is only length, mass and time; even more precisely, there are objects that have length, mass and time as properties and relations. Still, we have darn good evidence that length, mass, and time are real properties, and our scientific units correspond closely and uniformly to these real properties. We socially construct these abstractions in a very careful and uniform way.
If Johann Schmitz measures the height of an oak tree in Bavaria in 1914 as 7.23 metres, and John Smith measures the height of a flagpole in Oregon in 2009 at 5.42 meters, we can know with confidence that the oak tree in Bavaria really was taller in 1914 than the flagpole in Oregon was in 2009*. We could even make these measurements in different nominal units across time and space: I know that 15.81 cubits is taller than 26.94x10-2 furlongs.
Dollars, lira, deutchmarks. These economic units are also socially constructed abstractions. There are no dollars in nature. But, more importantly, a dollar by itself does not even correspond to anything real. If Juan Ferrari measures the Gross National Product of Italy in 1922 at 7.32x1012 lire, and Jean Lefèvre measures the privately held debt in France in 1989 at 3.768 francs, I know absolutely nothing. We have no way of knowing even whether or not the underlying reality differs by several orders of magnitude either way! Even if we measure the same quantity in the same nominal units at different times (e.g. the GDP of the United States in dollars in 1932 and 2009) or the same quantity at the same time with different nominal units (e.g. GDP of Germany and France in 1945) we still can't directly compare the quantities. A dollar is different in 1932 than 2009.
Not only are nominal economic units different, they are different in ambiguously defined ways. It's not that we absolutely cannot compare dollars in time or different currencies in space, it's that there are many different methods of making comparisons, and each method depends on a number of assumptions that are difficult to empirically justify. For example, when we compare dollars across time, economists usually adjust for inflation. But inflation itself is impossible to measure directly; we have to make a number of actual observations (the price of a loaf of bread, a pound of coal or oil) and apply fairly complicated — and controversial — models to compute the relative inflation.
There's nothing wrong with complicated models per se. However, I don't think any competent scientist would endorse using a complicated model to establish her primary units of measure.
Most economists are very smart, and I'm certainly not the first person to notice this issue. The problem is that there is no really good way to establish consistent economic units across time and space. Currency units at least afford precision and accuracy: I can go to the grocery store and precisely and accurately measure the price of a loaf of Hostess Wonder Bread™... even though I don't immediately know what that measurement means.
If Johann Schmitz measures the height of an oak tree in Bavaria in 1914 as 7.23 metres, and John Smith measures the height of a flagpole in Oregon in 2009 at 5.42 meters, we can know with confidence that the oak tree in Bavaria really was taller in 1914 than the flagpole in Oregon was in 2009*. We could even make these measurements in different nominal units across time and space: I know that 15.81 cubits is taller than 26.94x10-2 furlongs.
*Yes, I know about Special and General Relativity. But relativity doesn't complicate the relationship between observed units of measure and the underlying physical reality all that much. And even between observers of significantly varying velocity and/or acceleration, we can very precisely determine important characteristics of physical reality from their measurements in unqualified units.
Dollars, lira, deutchmarks. These economic units are also socially constructed abstractions. There are no dollars in nature. But, more importantly, a dollar by itself does not even correspond to anything real. If Juan Ferrari measures the Gross National Product of Italy in 1922 at 7.32x1012 lire, and Jean Lefèvre measures the privately held debt in France in 1989 at 3.768 francs, I know absolutely nothing. We have no way of knowing even whether or not the underlying reality differs by several orders of magnitude either way! Even if we measure the same quantity in the same nominal units at different times (e.g. the GDP of the United States in dollars in 1932 and 2009) or the same quantity at the same time with different nominal units (e.g. GDP of Germany and France in 1945) we still can't directly compare the quantities. A dollar is different in 1932 than 2009.
Not only are nominal economic units different, they are different in ambiguously defined ways. It's not that we absolutely cannot compare dollars in time or different currencies in space, it's that there are many different methods of making comparisons, and each method depends on a number of assumptions that are difficult to empirically justify. For example, when we compare dollars across time, economists usually adjust for inflation. But inflation itself is impossible to measure directly; we have to make a number of actual observations (the price of a loaf of bread, a pound of coal or oil) and apply fairly complicated — and controversial — models to compute the relative inflation.
There's nothing wrong with complicated models per se. However, I don't think any competent scientist would endorse using a complicated model to establish her primary units of measure.
Most economists are very smart, and I'm certainly not the first person to notice this issue. The problem is that there is no really good way to establish consistent economic units across time and space. Currency units at least afford precision and accuracy: I can go to the grocery store and precisely and accurately measure the price of a loaf of Hostess Wonder Bread™... even though I don't immediately know what that measurement means.
William Lane Craig on intellectual honesty:
The problem is that if you actually read all the books and authors that Craig cites, you will soon realize their arguments are not just weak, they're total and complete bullshit.
You don’t have to have any brains to tell someone, “Have you seen the Blackwell Companion to Natural Theology? Before you say there are no intelligent theists and no good reasons to believe in God, maybe you’d better look at that book first. Otherwise, you’re not really informed.” You don’t need to have read these books yourself if you’re so pressed for time. All you have to do is know a few titles. ... Shame the unbeliever for his ignorance of the literature. ...A honest skeptic would say, "If you're going to argue a position, there's no substitute for learning about it. Read X, Y, and Z." I honestly believe that Dr. Craig is simply too stupid to understand his own profound intellectual dishonesty... and he's the best Christianity has to offer.
[L]earn to drop the names of some Christian scholars. ... Name-dropping is distasteful when someone is trying to show off, but in a case like this, you’re simply offering counter-examples to the sweeping claim that all Christians are ignoramuses, a view that is itself rooted in ignorance. [emphasis added]
The problem is that if you actually read all the books and authors that Craig cites, you will soon realize their arguments are not just weak, they're total and complete bullshit.
The Pundit Delusion:
What I expect, instead, if and when the midterms go badly, is that the usual suspects will say that it was because Mr. Obama was too liberal — when his real mistake was doing too little to create jobs.If? Ha! I called this two years ago.
Any Fark thread on atheism, such as this thread shows the importance of a vigorous anti-religious atheist movement. Fark commenters are comparatively intelligent and sensible, but mention atheism and the inanity and stupidity goes off the charts.
The atheist critique of organized religion is not that the religious do silly things. Civilized people do a lot of stuff that is in some sense "objectively" silly. We are fortunate to have developed a level of material prosperity such that a lot of people can spend a fair fraction of their time doing things for no better reason than that they like doing them. There's nothing objectively sillier about magic underpants or incense and funny hats than there is about Dungeons and Dragons or any professional sport. If you don't care for something something that doesn't have an immediate material reward, anyone who does like it is going to look silly to you.
The atheist critique of religion is that they claim social, political, economic and philosophical privilege because of their silly activities. Religion is not just something that religious people enjoy doing; mastery of the details of religious silliness gives people an inordinate influence over the material workings of our society. Atheists therefore point out the silliness of religion not because we're against silliness per se, but because we want to undermine that privilege. We don't care that Mormons wear magic underwear; we are outraged, however, that one's diligence in wearing magic underwear is at all helpful in Utah politics. We don't care that the Pope wears a funny hat; we're gobsmacked that people actually listen to him about important matters of medicine, ethics, and law because he wears a funny hat.
There's no reason atheists shouldn't hang out together, and create more-or-less organized social scenes. When I moved to my present undisclosed location, the local atheist organizations gave me a foot in the door into a social scene and acquaintances I could spend time with. I knew I would share some common interests and values with most of the members, such as enjoyment of science and philosophy, disdain of religion and New-Age woo woo bullshit, humanist ethical values, open-minded intellectual discussion, etc. I wasn't going to walk in and get a job, a place to live and a girlfriend, but just hanging out with the groups does 90% of the chore of superficial filtering of potential acquaintances.
Why shouldn't we? Atheism just means (depending on how you like to phrase it) believing there's no god or not believing there is a god. It's an attitude about one specific family of propositions in an ocean of the beliefs, attitudes, opinions, knowledge and philosophy of human beings. We don't think people shouldn't be social, we don't think people shouldn't hang around with other people with common interests and values. And we have no objection per se to religious people hanging out together and doing the weird things they do.
There's nothing wrong per se with religious people proselytizing. As a social species, human beings are constantly interacting with each other to persuade each other to social, political and ethical values. There's nothing any more wrong in itself with religious people going door to door to talk about Jesus than there is with Greenpeace, Amnesty International or your local congressional candidate doing the same thing. Our argument is (or ought to be) with the content of the message, not that they are engaged in the ordinary human activity of discussing their beliefs and values with others. We don't object that they're knocking on our doors, we object that they're knocking on our doors to try and sell us something ridiculous. We object that they prey on the troubled, the ignorant, the poorly educated and the mentally ill. We don't object that they hand out pamphlets and tracts, we object that they hand out pamphlets and tracts of breathtaking stupidity.
To the extent that some atheists object to religious proselytization, we object on the same grounds that people object to email spam, telemarketing and junk mail: the specific method annoys almost everyone while appealing to a tiny few, and we object because the method is unusually susceptible to abuse by frauds, charlatans and con-artists.
We do not object to literature, mythology, fiction, art, beauty, happiness, ethics, love, emotion, preference, enjoyment and value. We embrace them, they are fully and completely human, fully and completely natural. They do not come from, they do not depend on, they are in no way about the supernatural, the "divine", or an invisible man in the sky. They are of and about the unimaginably complex task of a naturally evolved intelligent species trying to find its way in an un-sentient, unfeeling, uncaring and mostly inhospitable universe.
The New Atheists (u.e. modern anti-religious politically-oriented atheists) do not have a dogma; our common beliefs and values are not privileged by some supernatural or human authority, and dissent from those beliefs and values is not prima facie evidence of evil or corruption. But we do have common beliefs, a "doctrine" or "ideology" if you will, beliefs that are widely shared:
We are sometimes accused of being "intolerant" and attempting to "shut up" our opponents. It is a matter of some philosophical controversy* whether criticism and mockery are legitimate tools of suppression — of course, one cannot help employing criticism and mockery to suppress those who would use criticism and mockery as tools of suppression. We are unapologetic that we aim to suppress religion by peaceful, legal and honest means, and we object to the suppression of any mere belief, opinion, attitude or value — even religion — by violence, illegality, dishonesty or insincerity.
In principle, I don't object to criticism or mockery of atheism or anti-religion. However, after being deeply involved in the atheist community for more than a decade, I have never seen a criticism of atheism or anti-religion that was not just flawed, but obviously and ridiculously intellectually vacuous. I have never seen mockery of the actual beliefs and values prevalent in the atheist community, only mockery of beliefs and values that even a cursory examination of atheist thought and writing would quickly reveal are absent or completely marginalized.
We're here, we don't believe your ridiculous superstitions, we aren't going to sit down, shut up and allow the religious to impose their authoritarian, misogynist, homophobic, oppressive, exploitative, rapist-protecting, heretic burning crap on our society. Get used to it.
The atheist critique of organized religion is not that the religious do silly things. Civilized people do a lot of stuff that is in some sense "objectively" silly. We are fortunate to have developed a level of material prosperity such that a lot of people can spend a fair fraction of their time doing things for no better reason than that they like doing them. There's nothing objectively sillier about magic underpants or incense and funny hats than there is about Dungeons and Dragons or any professional sport. If you don't care for something something that doesn't have an immediate material reward, anyone who does like it is going to look silly to you.
The atheist critique of religion is that they claim social, political, economic and philosophical privilege because of their silly activities. Religion is not just something that religious people enjoy doing; mastery of the details of religious silliness gives people an inordinate influence over the material workings of our society. Atheists therefore point out the silliness of religion not because we're against silliness per se, but because we want to undermine that privilege. We don't care that Mormons wear magic underwear; we are outraged, however, that one's diligence in wearing magic underwear is at all helpful in Utah politics. We don't care that the Pope wears a funny hat; we're gobsmacked that people actually listen to him about important matters of medicine, ethics, and law because he wears a funny hat.
There's no reason atheists shouldn't hang out together, and create more-or-less organized social scenes. When I moved to my present undisclosed location, the local atheist organizations gave me a foot in the door into a social scene and acquaintances I could spend time with. I knew I would share some common interests and values with most of the members, such as enjoyment of science and philosophy, disdain of religion and New-Age woo woo bullshit, humanist ethical values, open-minded intellectual discussion, etc. I wasn't going to walk in and get a job, a place to live and a girlfriend, but just hanging out with the groups does 90% of the chore of superficial filtering of potential acquaintances.
Why shouldn't we? Atheism just means (depending on how you like to phrase it) believing there's no god or not believing there is a god. It's an attitude about one specific family of propositions in an ocean of the beliefs, attitudes, opinions, knowledge and philosophy of human beings. We don't think people shouldn't be social, we don't think people shouldn't hang around with other people with common interests and values. And we have no objection per se to religious people hanging out together and doing the weird things they do.
There's nothing wrong per se with religious people proselytizing. As a social species, human beings are constantly interacting with each other to persuade each other to social, political and ethical values. There's nothing any more wrong in itself with religious people going door to door to talk about Jesus than there is with Greenpeace, Amnesty International or your local congressional candidate doing the same thing. Our argument is (or ought to be) with the content of the message, not that they are engaged in the ordinary human activity of discussing their beliefs and values with others. We don't object that they're knocking on our doors, we object that they're knocking on our doors to try and sell us something ridiculous. We object that they prey on the troubled, the ignorant, the poorly educated and the mentally ill. We don't object that they hand out pamphlets and tracts, we object that they hand out pamphlets and tracts of breathtaking stupidity.
To the extent that some atheists object to religious proselytization, we object on the same grounds that people object to email spam, telemarketing and junk mail: the specific method annoys almost everyone while appealing to a tiny few, and we object because the method is unusually susceptible to abuse by frauds, charlatans and con-artists.
We do not object to literature, mythology, fiction, art, beauty, happiness, ethics, love, emotion, preference, enjoyment and value. We embrace them, they are fully and completely human, fully and completely natural. They do not come from, they do not depend on, they are in no way about the supernatural, the "divine", or an invisible man in the sky. They are of and about the unimaginably complex task of a naturally evolved intelligent species trying to find its way in an un-sentient, unfeeling, uncaring and mostly inhospitable universe.
The New Atheists (u.e. modern anti-religious politically-oriented atheists) do not have a dogma; our common beliefs and values are not privileged by some supernatural or human authority, and dissent from those beliefs and values is not prima facie evidence of evil or corruption. But we do have common beliefs, a "doctrine" or "ideology" if you will, beliefs that are widely shared:
- Religion — specifically the sort of religion that holds a supernatural authority who grants some sort of social privilege, especially ethical privilege — is not just not to our taste, not just something that an individual should have the freedom to deny. Religion is itself actively bad.
- As bad as we believe religion to be, we should never employ violence or physical coercion of any sort, state-sanctioned or vigilante, to suppress religion.
- We should employ only lawful means to suppress religion; we should completely refrain from unlawful but non-violent means such as vandalism or harassment.*
- We should never employ lies or bullshit to suppress religion. The factual truth and our sincere ethical opinions are sufficient to the job.
- Because we do believe that religion is bad, we will use every truthful, legal, non-violent means at our disposal to suppress and deprecate religion, including philosophical criticism, mockery, shame, and outrage. We will use political action to ensure the government does not establish any religion** and to promote humanist, civilized values in our legal and political system.
*I'm not particularly enthralled with the capitalist pseudo-democratic legal process. Still, a bad legal process is (usually) better than no process at all, and I go to considerable lengths to fit my personal conduct to existing law. Indeed, I believe a violent revolution is both possible and warranted only after the capitalist ruling class itself decisively and openly abandons the Constitution, and either the law itself becomes openly tyrannical or the capitalist ruling class abandons the rule of law in general.
**We are just as opposed, at least in principle, to the government prohibiting the free exercise of religion. We typically lack standing to contribute meaningfully to the government's attempts to limit the free exercise of minority religions, so free exercise is typically not a high priority.
**We are just as opposed, at least in principle, to the government prohibiting the free exercise of religion. We typically lack standing to contribute meaningfully to the government's attempts to limit the free exercise of minority religions, so free exercise is typically not a high priority.
We are sometimes accused of being "intolerant" and attempting to "shut up" our opponents. It is a matter of some philosophical controversy* whether criticism and mockery are legitimate tools of suppression — of course, one cannot help employing criticism and mockery to suppress those who would use criticism and mockery as tools of suppression. We are unapologetic that we aim to suppress religion by peaceful, legal and honest means, and we object to the suppression of any mere belief, opinion, attitude or value — even religion — by violence, illegality, dishonesty or insincerity.
*Keep in mind that there is some philosophical controversy about whether there is a real world, and whether things fall when you drop them. There is even philosophical controversy over whether the phrase "philosophical controversy" is meaningful. After a decade of study, I've come to the conclusion that philosophy is mostly theology without the discipline and intellectual integrity provided by an anchor to scripture. "Do I contradict myself? / Very well then I contradict myself, / (I am large, I contain multitudes.)"
In principle, I don't object to criticism or mockery of atheism or anti-religion. However, after being deeply involved in the atheist community for more than a decade, I have never seen a criticism of atheism or anti-religion that was not just flawed, but obviously and ridiculously intellectually vacuous. I have never seen mockery of the actual beliefs and values prevalent in the atheist community, only mockery of beliefs and values that even a cursory examination of atheist thought and writing would quickly reveal are absent or completely marginalized.
We're here, we don't believe your ridiculous superstitions, we aren't going to sit down, shut up and allow the religious to impose their authoritarian, misogynist, homophobic, oppressive, exploitative, rapist-protecting, heretic burning crap on our society. Get used to it.
Actual headline: Dick Cheney Without a Pulse, Must Be Plugged In. What a surprise.
Mark Thoma links to In Finance We Distrust, by Michael Spence and offers his commentary. I generally approve; I'll post quotations and analysis tomorrow.
I've decided to restore comments.
As before, spam, pr0n, threats, commercial advertising, completely off-topic comments, batshit insanity (that means you, David Mabus) and outright lies about matters of fact (yes, you, Rob Singleton) will not be published. Otherwise, I'll publish most everything else. I don't care about profanity. Feel free to call me a fucktard. You may post anonymously. Word verification is on to keep spambots from making too much extra work for me.
The big change is that I will rarely respond directly to comments. I will usually respond only to provide additional evidence or in rare cases clarification of points I myself consider unclear. I might create another post generally based on questions or criticism in comments, but don't hold your breath. Usually I've said what I have to say; 90% of criticism is from those who apparently cannot read and understand simple declarative sentences in the English language; it's usually a waste of time repeating my arguments. If you want a specific response, or you want to debate or argue with me in any sense, you can email me. I won't promise anything, but you at least have a shot.
When commenting, you must address me, not other commenters, in a similar fashion as addressing the Chair in parliamentary procedure. If you want to address another commenter directly, do it by email, their blog or your own, or find a message board. In general, I'm not interested in hosting debates between commenters. If I feel a debate is brewing, I will close comments for the post.
I cannot edit comments, and would not if I could. I myself cannot (and would not if I could) keep any records regarding the origin of comments or the locations, IP address and any other identifying information about commenters. I cannot speak for Google.
As always, in the final analysis I retain the unconditional privilege of publishing or rejecting comments at my arbitrary discretion.
As before, spam, pr0n, threats, commercial advertising, completely off-topic comments, batshit insanity (that means you, David Mabus) and outright lies about matters of fact (yes, you, Rob Singleton) will not be published. Otherwise, I'll publish most everything else. I don't care about profanity. Feel free to call me a fucktard. You may post anonymously. Word verification is on to keep spambots from making too much extra work for me.
The big change is that I will rarely respond directly to comments. I will usually respond only to provide additional evidence or in rare cases clarification of points I myself consider unclear. I might create another post generally based on questions or criticism in comments, but don't hold your breath. Usually I've said what I have to say; 90% of criticism is from those who apparently cannot read and understand simple declarative sentences in the English language; it's usually a waste of time repeating my arguments. If you want a specific response, or you want to debate or argue with me in any sense, you can email me. I won't promise anything, but you at least have a shot.
When commenting, you must address me, not other commenters, in a similar fashion as addressing the Chair in parliamentary procedure. If you want to address another commenter directly, do it by email, their blog or your own, or find a message board. In general, I'm not interested in hosting debates between commenters. If I feel a debate is brewing, I will close comments for the post.
I cannot edit comments, and would not if I could. I myself cannot (and would not if I could) keep any records regarding the origin of comments or the locations, IP address and any other identifying information about commenters. I cannot speak for Google.
As always, in the final analysis I retain the unconditional privilege of publishing or rejecting comments at my arbitrary discretion.
How facts backfire:
Fundamentally, skepticism is a moral and ethical position, not a specifically intellectual position. If you don't actively cultivate the idea that it's good to be wrong, that it's good to be corrected, that it's good to change your mind, then you'll fall into mental habits that make changing your mind almost impossibly difficult. In much the same sense, we have to actively cultivate — at the individual, social and institutional levels — all the ideas that make civilization possible: cooperation, respect and concern for others' well-being and mutual benefit; without this ethical and cognitive discipline, we risk falling back into low-level conflict to everyone's detriment.
Facts don’t necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger. ...
[I]f you harbor the notion — popular on both sides of the aisle — that the solution is more education and a higher level of political sophistication in voters overall, well, that’s a start, but not the solution. A 2006 study by Charles Taber and Milton Lodge at Stony Brook University showed that politically sophisticated thinkers were even less open to new information than less sophisticated types. These people may be factually right about 90 percent of things, but their confidence makes it nearly impossible to correct the 10 percent on which they’re totally wrong. Taber and Lodge found this alarming, because engaged, sophisticated thinkers are “the very folks on whom democratic theory relies most heavily.”
Fundamentally, skepticism is a moral and ethical position, not a specifically intellectual position. If you don't actively cultivate the idea that it's good to be wrong, that it's good to be corrected, that it's good to change your mind, then you'll fall into mental habits that make changing your mind almost impossibly difficult. In much the same sense, we have to actively cultivate — at the individual, social and institutional levels — all the ideas that make civilization possible: cooperation, respect and concern for others' well-being and mutual benefit; without this ethical and cognitive discipline, we risk falling back into low-level conflict to everyone's detriment.
What is the skeptic’s option? The author asserts,
The author has an excellent point: The internet is indeed set up to make skepticism vastly more difficult, more difficult than it already is. But skepticism is not just open disbelief. Were that so, then we should consider evolution and global warming deniers skeptics in good standing.
Skepticism is believing or disbelieving on the basis of evidence and evidence alone. When a skeptic says that she's skeptical about this or that, she is not saying she doesn't believe it, she's saying, "Show me the evidence." I will abandon my most cherished belief if the evidence is against it, but more importantly I will adopt the most bizarre believe if the evidence supports it: if I'll believe quantum mechanics, I'll believe anything.
(Skepticism is not a belief formation mechanism; it is a filter, and an expensive filter at that. It is impractical to hold only those beliefs that have survived a rigorous skeptical filter; even the best skeptic holds a huge number of beliefs just because everyone else believes them. But when a belief becomes controversial or untenable, a skeptic is someone who exercises the discipline and will to look to the evidence and adopt, reject or suspend belief on the basis of the evidence and only the evidence.)
I was talking to an atheist the other day about economics (my favorite hobbyhorse). He's trying to be skeptical about economics: he says (paraphrasing from memory) that he looks at what both sides have to say, and believes the side that's more plausible. At least he's looking, and good for him, but that still isn't skepticism. The whole point of skepticism is believing ideas that sound intuitively implausible because the evidence supports them.
The idea that fundamental particles are in a near-infinitely dimensional superposition of states and in a sense aren't even there when no one is looking ought to boggle the mind. That the complexity of organisms and ecosystems evolved over hundreds of millions of years by mechanisms no more complicated than random variation and natural selection is ridiculous. That the "rock solid" Earth is whizzing and whirling around space at unimaginable speeds is ludicrous.
Without the massive amounts of evidence and enough methodological knowledge to evaluate that evidence, all of modern science is completely unbelievable. I personally know that quantum mechanics, evolution and heliocentricity are true because I do have enough methodological knowledge and I can evaluate the evidence more or less directly. I know that much of modern economic theory is complete bullshit because I've studied the subject directly and I can look at the evidence.
You don't need enough knowledge to do original work in a field: you just need enough knowledge to evaluate claims on their own merits. But even this limited knowledge takes discipline, hard work and most of all time to acquire. But the work is indispensable: without it, you cannot have an informed opinion.
I myself am suspicious of evolutionary psychology, but I cannot be skeptical of it: I haven't done the work to evaluate the claims directly. It sounds like bullshit (and I think I have a pretty good intuitive bullshit detector), but I don't know it's bullshit. All I can really say is that there are scientists I respect, scientists who could evaluate the evidence directly, who are indeed skeptical. Experts' controversy a little bit of evidence, albeit indirect, that I can evaluate myself, but it's just not enough: every new idea, good and bad, justly faces the skepticism of established experts: that's their job. The best I can do is acknowledge my suspicions and suspend judgment.
The author is correct: The internet — especially "social media" — is not conducive to skeptical examination: it is not conducive to the evaluation of beliefs on the basis of evidence and evidence alone. On the other hand, the internet makes the fundamental process of learning enough of the fundamentals of any science and discovering the evidence on which to base a skeptical decision easier than ever before. You can, if you are so inclined, learn enough about just about anything to make an informed judgment, and learn it for no more than the cost of a computer and broadband connection... plus your time.
Skepticism is looking something directly in the eye and stating for everyone to hear that you don’t believe it.No.
The author has an excellent point: The internet is indeed set up to make skepticism vastly more difficult, more difficult than it already is. But skepticism is not just open disbelief. Were that so, then we should consider evolution and global warming deniers skeptics in good standing.
Skepticism is believing or disbelieving on the basis of evidence and evidence alone. When a skeptic says that she's skeptical about this or that, she is not saying she doesn't believe it, she's saying, "Show me the evidence." I will abandon my most cherished belief if the evidence is against it, but more importantly I will adopt the most bizarre believe if the evidence supports it: if I'll believe quantum mechanics, I'll believe anything.
(Skepticism is not a belief formation mechanism; it is a filter, and an expensive filter at that. It is impractical to hold only those beliefs that have survived a rigorous skeptical filter; even the best skeptic holds a huge number of beliefs just because everyone else believes them. But when a belief becomes controversial or untenable, a skeptic is someone who exercises the discipline and will to look to the evidence and adopt, reject or suspend belief on the basis of the evidence and only the evidence.)
I was talking to an atheist the other day about economics (my favorite hobbyhorse). He's trying to be skeptical about economics: he says (paraphrasing from memory) that he looks at what both sides have to say, and believes the side that's more plausible. At least he's looking, and good for him, but that still isn't skepticism. The whole point of skepticism is believing ideas that sound intuitively implausible because the evidence supports them.
The idea that fundamental particles are in a near-infinitely dimensional superposition of states and in a sense aren't even there when no one is looking ought to boggle the mind. That the complexity of organisms and ecosystems evolved over hundreds of millions of years by mechanisms no more complicated than random variation and natural selection is ridiculous. That the "rock solid" Earth is whizzing and whirling around space at unimaginable speeds is ludicrous.
Without the massive amounts of evidence and enough methodological knowledge to evaluate that evidence, all of modern science is completely unbelievable. I personally know that quantum mechanics, evolution and heliocentricity are true because I do have enough methodological knowledge and I can evaluate the evidence more or less directly. I know that much of modern economic theory is complete bullshit because I've studied the subject directly and I can look at the evidence.
You don't need enough knowledge to do original work in a field: you just need enough knowledge to evaluate claims on their own merits. But even this limited knowledge takes discipline, hard work and most of all time to acquire. But the work is indispensable: without it, you cannot have an informed opinion.
I myself am suspicious of evolutionary psychology, but I cannot be skeptical of it: I haven't done the work to evaluate the claims directly. It sounds like bullshit (and I think I have a pretty good intuitive bullshit detector), but I don't know it's bullshit. All I can really say is that there are scientists I respect, scientists who could evaluate the evidence directly, who are indeed skeptical. Experts' controversy a little bit of evidence, albeit indirect, that I can evaluate myself, but it's just not enough: every new idea, good and bad, justly faces the skepticism of established experts: that's their job. The best I can do is acknowledge my suspicions and suspend judgment.
The author is correct: The internet — especially "social media" — is not conducive to skeptical examination: it is not conducive to the evaluation of beliefs on the basis of evidence and evidence alone. On the other hand, the internet makes the fundamental process of learning enough of the fundamentals of any science and discovering the evidence on which to base a skeptical decision easier than ever before. You can, if you are so inclined, learn enough about just about anything to make an informed judgment, and learn it for no more than the cost of a computer and broadband connection... plus your time.


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