Author Archive for Ken

Give them enough rope . . .

The last few years the climate change denier organisations have fooled themselves into thinking they are on a roll. (I am talking about deniers – not contrarians or sceptics). What with the “climategate affair,” the resulting investigations (which didn’t go their way) and the legal attacks on prominent climate scientists like Michael Mann (These have also failed). But really what they have been doing is feeding out the rope which will eventually hang them.

This is obviously the case with the US “think tank” The Heartland Institute. This rabid free market organisation had been trying hard to present themselves as purveyors of the “true” science on the climate. In particular, they have being sponsoring, together with a number of other dogmatic free market organisations, a conference they claim as “scientific.” But, they are not interested in finding facts, rather fighting facts. And that is the true purpose of their conference.

The Heartland Institute feeds out the rope with this billboard advertising there conference.

The most recent conference kicked off the other day (see Heartland Institute’s Seventh International Conference on Climate Change – ICCC-7). But its come at a bad time for them. Back in February there was the scandal of their leaked emails and documents. These revealed some details of their financial backers – as well as plans to subvert the educations system with climate denial propaganda  (see Heartland Institute gets mail and Heartland’s climategate – and Mann’s book). Then earlier this month  they really dished out the rope with a electronic billboard advertising this conference (see Heartland ignorant of public relations – let alone science).*

$825,000 gone – $1,430,000 to go!

This caused such a negative reaction that they pulled it within hours. But instead of effectively “fighting the facts” of climate science they were sawing off the branch they were sitting on. Within days they faced withdrawal of speakers from the conference, departure of staff,  and, more importantly, withdrawal of finance from some of their sponsors. See Guardian report Heartland Institute facing uncertain future as staff depart and cash dries up).

Have a look at Forecast the Facts – a webs site charting the decline in Heartland’s financial support. As of today $US825,000 of their projected 2012 Corporate support of US$2,225,00 has been pulled.

Presenting the facts and not fighting them.

And the climate reality project has responded with a public donor financed billboard giving some of the facts. This will be displayed throughout their conference. (You can make donations at Climate Reality | Donate).

All this has forced The Heartland Institute to fall back on other sponsors, both for their conference and for their own finances. Sponsors more directly and publicly connected to the fossil fuel industry (see Heartland Institute Hemorrhages Donors And Cash For Extremist Agenda, As Coal And Oil Step In).

“a coal lobby group has stepped in as one of its ‘gold’ sponsors. The Illinois coal chief praises Heartland for its work and ‘so we thought we would finally make a contribution to the organisation.’ He added, ‘In general, the message of the Heartland Institute is something the Illinois Coal Association supports.

In addition to the Illinois Coal Association, ExxonMobil, other oil companies, as well as Heritage Foundation have joined to sponsor the conference.”

Some of the Australian organisations cosponsoring Heartland’s conference

Mind you, have a look at their co-sponsors for this conference. A whole host of political, extreme right-wing, organisations. You will recognise some of the names. The George C. Marshall Institute (who denied tobacco was harmful), Institute for Private Enterprise, Australian Taxpayers Alliance (“fighting tax, regulation and waste”), Heritage Foundation, Ayn Rand Institute, Competitive Enterprise Institute, and so on.

By your friends we shall know you

Oh, by the way – the only New Zealand sponsor I could see was the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.

Footnote:

*Even the climate change denial internet echo chamber was largely critical of the Heartland billboard. (Although local denier blog Climate Conversations couldn’t quite make up its mind. Richard Treadgold, poor guy, thought it was “a stupid, brave, heart-warming experiment.” Couldn’t quite bring himself to be critical, although most of his commenters were – see … is sauce for the gander). And the Heartland Institute is such a sensitive topic at Watts Up With That you need a special password to join in any discussion of the conference – see Protected: At the conference.

Update: Seems Watts Up With That was so excited about attending the conference they cocked up that post. So it’s no longer “protected.”

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Human morality is evolving

I want to give some of my final thoughts on   Jonathan Haidt‘s book – The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion. In Morality and the “worship” of reason my interim judgement (after reading one third of the book) was favourable – but I had concerns. Now, having finished the book, my judgement overall is very critical. I don’t think it’s a book I can truly recommend (except for the first third).

Partly because I feel Haidt really uses the later parts of the book to promote his own hobby horses – prejudices about atheism (or the “New Atheists” – whoever they are), political ideology and the role of religion in morality and society. But also because his scientific analysis of human morality was too reductionist – in a bad way.

Why badly reductionist?

Throughout the book I was acutely aware Haidt’s analysis was of human morality – as it exists. To his credit, as it exists in several different societies. To me its important philosophically to study things in their environments.

But the big mistake was to study human morality as a static phenomenon – he didn’t investigate it in its development, as a constantly changing, evolving thing. (Again I think the investigation of things in their development is philosophically important).

The fact is human morality in most cultures is evolving. And there are huge factors in today’s world which make this inevitable, probably even escalate moral evolution.

A role for reason in moral evolution?

So yes it is useful for Haidt to draw out two principles in his book:

1: Morality is about emotions, not rationality. Our emotions enable us to react quickly in moral situations and our intelligence enables us to “explain” why after the fact. Haidt’s slogan is “Intuition comes first, strategic reasoning second.”

2: His second slogan is “There’s more to to morality than harm and fairness.” He describes six different foundations underlying human morality:

  • Care/Harm;
  • Liberty/oppression;
  • Fairness/cheating;
  • Loyalty/betrayal;
  • Authority/subversion;
  • Sanctity/degradation.

But he does little to elucidate the role of intelligence and reason in moral change and evolution. He limits this to only the possible education of one person by interacting with another (and hence inhibiting somewhat our inbuilt desire to rationalise rather than reason properly). But ignores the much wider role of society in general, especially in today’s world of modern communication and entertainment, mass entertainment, the internet, etc.

Also, in concentrating on the six different intuitive or instinctive foundations of human morality – as it exists - he does not investigate the relative roles of these intuitions, and their resultant human values, in the evolution of human morality and laws.

How do we change human morality?

Obviously this is not simple. Nor is it always, everywhere, and for everyone a rational process. A result of reasoning, discussion and democratic decision.

But, despite all these other factors we should recognise that reasoning, rational discussion and democratic decisions are involved. Look back over your own life time. In my case I have seen huge evolution in aspects of human morality like attitudes towards discrimination – racial, gender and even species. For the average person in the street these changes may have occurred subconsciously – because of changes in social acceptance of women and gays, of interracial marriage, etc., or because they were habituated to a new morality by what they saw on TV or read in books. But this was also accompanied by the intelligent debate that occurred, and is occurring in society. The challenging of old prejudices. The argument for recognition of human rights, etc. Even the passing of anti-discrimination laws – which of course require intelligent discussion and decision.

So while a static view of human morality must emphasise that emotion comes first, rationalisation after, when we look at the evolution of human morality in today’s society we must recognise an important role for reason, intelligent discussion and decisions.  So, I think there is a lot of value in Haidt’s metaphor comparing our subconscious feelings and emotions to an elephant -(which usually goes its own way) and our conscious and intelligent reasoning to its driver (who thinks he is in control). But using that metaphor there are times when those drivers can educate the elephant. Train it out of old habits and into new ones.

What role for Haidt’s moral foundation theory?

And what role do the six foundations of morality Haidt identifies play in the the evolution of human morality. Well of course they operate at the non-conscious, non-reasoning, emotional level – and continue to. But when it comes to intelligent collective discussion and deliberation of moral issues I don’t think they have the same importance.

Yes, citizens of a specific nation may argue for recognition of authority, loyalty and purity when it comes to discussing laws and acceptable behaviour regarding oaths, respect for the national flag, etc. But in a modern, pluralist society such foundations will not play the same role when consider laws and behaviour on blasphemy, defamation of religion, genital mutilation, freedom of speech, freedom of association, marriage equality, gender equality, discrimination, rights of individuals, etc. When we come to applying reasoning and rational discussion to human issues the values based on the foundation of harm and care will be dominant.

That’s not to say the values based on purity, authority, sacredness, etc., won’t be involved. Just that in a modern pluralist democratic society these cannot play a controlling role. Partly this is just a fact of the way democracy must work in a pluralist society. Minorities should not get the freedom to override and dominate majorities. But it is also based on the reality that there is actually a more objective basis for the foundations of harm and care than there is for the other foundations. That objective basis is fundamental to biological life (how could it be otherwise – life would not have survived and evolved without these objective biological values).

Looked at this way – seeing human morality in its development and not as a static phenomenon – leads, I think, to quite different conclusions to those drawn by Haidt. He sees liberals as being at a disadvantage because they give more relevance to the foundations of care/harm, Liberty/oppression and fairness/cheating than conservatives who actually include, and give similar emphasis to the other foundations (loyalty/betrayal, authority/subversion and sanctity/degradation). He argues that therefore conservative understand human morality better than liberals and politically they communicate better with others.

But I see conservatives as playing an undermining role in the development, evolution, of human morality because they are actually less concerned with the values based on care/harm liberty/oppression and fairness/cheating than on those values which are in fact secondary, do not have an objective basis, which are based on loyalty/betrayal, authority/subversion and sanctity/degradation.   And I suggest that if we look back over our own lifetimes we can see that in fact political conservative have generally not lead movements for moral progress. They have worked to undermine moral progress by appealing to those secondary, less basic, foundations.

Atheists who promote religion?

It turns out that Haidt is another one of these atheists who actually see a positive role for religion and therefore are hostile to the so-called “New Atheists’ and others critical of the role of relgion in today’s society. They wish these “strident,” and “militant” atheists would STFU – because they feel such criticism undermines the very foundation of social cohesiveness and human morality.

Haidt uses (opportunistically and unthinkingly I think) a model of group selection to justify a determining role for religion in preserving society. Let the evolutionary biologists take him to task over that one. But it enables him to advance the slogan “Morality binds and blinds,” to substitute religion for morality as a force which provides our social glue and leadership.

He expresses it this way:

“Religions are moral exoskeletons. If you live in a religious community, you are meshed in a set of norms, relationships, and institutions that work primarilty on the elephant to influence your behaviour. But if you are an atheist living in a looser community with a less binding moral matrix, you might have to rely somewhat more on an internal moral compass, read by the rider. …… When societies lose their grip on individuals, allowing all to do as they please, the result is often a decrease in happiness and an increase in suicide . …”

And he warns atheists:

“Societies that forgo the exoskeleton of religion should reflect carefully on what will happen to them over several generations. We don’t really know, because the first atheistic societies have only emerged in Europe in the last decades. They are the least efficient societies ever known at turning resources (of which they have a lot) into offspring (of which they have few).”

Again, let those who are concerned about the populations explosion, limited resources and ecological damage to our environment deal with that last sentence. But, personally I think his approach is cowardly and unrealistic (as well as unjustifiable righteous).

Cowardly because it expresses fear about the changes in human morality and moral understanding already underway. And unrealistic because it appeals to old institutions and beliefs to solve new problems in new situations. Yes, this does mean that more people will be appealing to their own inner moral compass – but when has development of a sense of moral autonomy been a bad thing.  And yes there will be, already are, new institutions and new communities. That is inevitable in a modern society with modern forms of communication and creation of communities. And modern understandings where appeal to supernatural guidance is far less effective.

Yes that does mean the old religious moral exoskeletons may disappear. But I don’t think moral exoskeletons in general will. In fact I think we are creating new ones all the time. And perhaps the much hated “New Atheists” are encouraging formation of these new exoskeletons by their activity.

Human society and human morality is not static. They will inevitably evolve. And our investigations of morality this should recognise this evolution.

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So you’re considering switching to eBooks?

Here’s a graphic I picked up from Online Universities (thanks to E-book Nation). The data is specific to the USA but I think it’s worth anyone considering possible purchase of an eBook Reader, or a tablet for reading purposes, reading through it.

For example, you might conclude from this that such a purchase will probably mean you read a lot more. That you are more likely to buy new books than just borrow them. That you will be able to get books more quickly and there will be more to select from.

However, you will be less likely to share your books with others. And you will prefer to use a printed book when reading with a child.

(Click twice on image to enlarge).


Brought to you by: OnlineUniversities.com

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Welcome to the Anthropocene

Welcome to the Anthropocene

Here’s a brief video describing the impact our species has had on the planet.

Thanks to: Watch A Stunning Video Of Humanity’s Effect On Earth


Naturalism in science

Have a look at the short (10 min) presentation. I think it explains the scientific approach (in contrast to the religious approach) very well. It’s Sean Carroll’s opening statement from the The Great Debate: Science vs. Religion. You don’t usually see such sensible contributions in  a debate.

Normally I don’t like to use words like materialism and naturalism – without careful definition they are too open to misinterpretation. I also think that science is concerned with understanding reality, the real world. Some people use “naturalism” to ring-fence a part of the world (they define as “supernatural”) as immune to investigation. They claim science is limited to the “natural” world.

However, I really like this presentation by Sean Carroll. He is not conceding a “supernatural” part of reality which science is excluded from. Reality itself is natural in his eyes – and that has been shown by all our scientific experiences. As he describes it he tries “to sum up the progress in human understanding that has led us to reject the supernatural and accept that the natural world is all there is.”

And he makes an intriguing reference to Princess Elisabeth of Bohemia.

Professor Carroll invites comments on his presentation at his blog post The Case for Naturalism.

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“Lose” your faith, gain your life?

Richard Dawkins and Michael Aus discuss The Clergy Project.

I look up to people who change their beliefs when the evidence warrants it. It’s just so easy to invent arguments protecting unwarranted belief. So I have a soft spot for honest sceptics and contrarians.

Even more so I admire people who change a (previously held) ideological outlook in the face of evidence. Particularly if this results in a drop of income, loss of a profession, destruction of friendships and loss of emotional security.

Just imagine devoting one’s life to a political cause, even being employed as a political party activist, because of a strong and genuine belief in one’s youth. Then later in life deciding you had been wrong. Do you stick with it – become cynical, continue to perform your expected role. Or do you front up, admit your changes in belief, look for a new job, ride out the hostility of your former ideological friends, etc.

I think this dilemma must be common with religious ministers, priests, Imams, and so on. If only because there are far more of those around than there are paid political party activists. Surely a significant proportion of these people must “lose” their faith. What should they do?

The above interview is of one such minister. Reverend Michael Aus came out as a non-believer on US national television on March 25th 2012. He was helped in his brave decision by the Clergy Project. This project was initiated by Daniel Dennett‘s research into the phenomena of atheist ministers of religion. It provides moral support and practical help and advice to people like Michael Aus.

I know of a few priests and ministers in New Zealand who have “lost” their faith, fronted up and so lost their job. These cases illustrate to me what a huge emotional and moral leap is involved. Quite apart from all the practical issues some of these people, Catholic priests in particular, have been thoroughly institutionalised by their Church. Their decision involves more than a change of job and friends.

I wonder if there is scope for a “Clergy project” in New Zealand.

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What’s in store for eBook readers

Dedicated eReader or an iPad?

I think many New Zealanders have joined the digital reading revolution. They are purchasing eBooks on-line and reading them on a tablet, such as the iPad, or a dedicated reading device, an eReader.

Personally I think eReaders are a better device for reading – because they don’t provide distractions. Anyway, here I just want to comment on what we can possible look forward to, or expect, in upcoming eReaders.

The major eReaders available in New Zealand all do their job well. The current standard is built-in Wi-Fi and a touch screen. Choice really seems to come down to aesthetics and not actual performance (for example, the major criticism of the Sony appears to be a shiny plastic bezel which could annoy readers). Book formats could also be another factor – choosing between Amazon’s mobi and the alternative ePub open format.

Retail prices for some of the current models in New Zealand have dropped recently. It’s that time of the year  – look forward to announcement of new models in the next few months. Currently I have no idea what to expect. Haven’t picked up any rumours yet. But here are some possibilities worth considering:

Glowlight!

Barnes and Noble latest eReader is the Nook Simple Touch with Glowlight. This has  LED lights embedded into the side of the frame. Power drain is low so battery life isn’t markedly reduced. But its a great idea – especially for those with who have sleeping partners but enjoy reading in bed.

Personally I enjoy the fact that eReaders are not backlit as tablets are. Apparently that makes reading harsher. And the dedicated eReader experience is more like reading the printed page. But in bed, or on other low light situations this innovation would be great.

Barnes and Noble does not sell their Nook eReaders in New Zealand but the fact that these new eInk screens are being produced makes uptake by Sony, Kobo or Kindle likely in the near future.

Colour screens

Colour eInk screens are a possibility in future eReaders. The technology is available. These screens won’t have the brilliant colour of backlit tablet screens but should be an advantage for some books – especially comics and technical books with images. However, manufacturers of the smaller screen eReaders may prefer to produce an alternative tablet or backlit screen model, such as the Kindle Fire, Kobo Vox and Nook  colour. For them this may represent the best approach to the market.

Larger screens

The Jetbook Color has a 9.7 inch screen

This is something we have yet to see in New Zealand. I feel there is a market for these – the 6 inch screens are ideal for novels and relatively straightforward non-fiction. But text books, and many other technical books would be far better on the larger screen. Such a screen would also by ideal for pdf formats – and we often have to read other documents besides novels – especially if we are students or researchers. And a larger screen displaying a full pdf or document page will probably work better a 6 inch screen with material we need to refer back to. Something to do with storing the place on the page of an image or piece of information on a page in our memory.

Non-dedicated tablets may be preferred by many people. However the larger iInk screen dedicated devices would have the advantages of longer battery life (using the iPad as a portable device must have its drawbacks because of the battery), less distraction and more comfortable reading. High prices for large screen eReaders could be a drawback, at least until they are more common.

Ectaco Jetbook Color under trial in a Russian classroom

A hopeful sign is that the 9.7 inch Ectaco Jetbook Color e-Reader,the only touchscreen Color E Ink eBook Reader in the world, has come on the market overseas. It is being evaluated for educational purposes in some US schools and a large number of Russian schools. This eReader is clearly targeted at the education market as it comes preloaded with many text books and educational aids. The US Defense Department is also using itReviews indicate that this could be a useful dedicated device.

Removal of DRM

Journalists are speculating that the days of Digital Rights Management (DRM) are numbered. A few publishers have already abandoned it and competition, or is it antagonism, between Amazon and many publishers could lead to its widespread removal. It’s a complex issue but publishers seem to think DRM enables Amazon to achieve monopoly control and to enforce use of their eReaders and eBook format.

Some people, including many authors, really hate DRM. Readers resent the inability to really own the book they have bought as DRM often enforces use of a single device, prevents lending or passing books on to friends and family, and often makes side loading (loading books from other sources, even in the proper format), complicated.

However, computer savy readers usually have no problem removing DRM. And there is a high motivation to do so. Not for piracy or any other illegal use. But to enable use of different formats and books from different sources. As well as legitimate sharing.

Just imagine buying a print book (pBook), going to read it at home and finding that some of the pages are uncut. Easily remedied. But imagine downloading an eBook and finding that your eReader will not open it. No, not a format problem. Maybe some images in the book are is the swg rather than jpg format.  Or there are a large number of embedded fonts which cause the eReader to crash. (Actually the poor conversion of many books to a digital format is another bitch I have about publishers). I have had both problems and let me tell you that eBook sellers like Kobo don’t exactly have a functioning help department.

In such cases the books can easily be corrected by the computer savy reader once the DRM is removed. Why should they be prevented from do so?

On the other hand I know from my friends that many owners of eReaders don’t give a stuff about DRM. They may not know it even exists. They are happy to use the device as a simple attachment to a single provider, purchase all their books from that provider (usually Amazon), and never go hunting for other sources. DRM is probably a non-issue for them.

Conclusion

I suspect a glow screen may be the next common feature – in fact this has already been rumoured for the Kindle. So I would not be surprised to see it in upcoming local eReader models.

Colour and larger eInk screens would be nice. However, I suspect this may not happen soon if tablets, like the iPad, continue their market dominance. On the other hand, institutional and educational pressures could bring the price of larger screen, colour, eReaders down. That is something I would like as the ability to easily read text books, technical articles, pdfs and reference material in a larger format would be really useful.

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Heartland ignorant of public relations – let alone science

You don’t have to hang around the internet for long to recognise the “silo” phenomena. The way the ideological group-thinkers will hang around specific sites feeding their belief. Then there is the “echo-chamber” – the way that bloggers and commenters in ideological silos will frantically circulate links and claims from ideologically approved sources for use by their ideological comrades.

It all seems to foster the illusion of a community which knows the Truth. Tame “experts” are elevated to saint-like status and other experts demonised. The community encourages faith that they are influential and larger than in fact they are.

In the past I have referred to such communities as “ghettos” – because they promote self-containment, self-reliance, and immunise their members from influences in the real world. I notice these phenomena to be very strong among religious apologists and climate change deniers/contrarians.

Sometimes the perverted sense of reality of these communities can cause them to make huge mistakes. Over this weekend we have seen one such example – the billboard advertising the Heartland Institute ahead of their annual conference dissing climate change science.

What a Koch-up!

The Washington Post reported:

“I still believe in Global Warming. Do you?” read big orange letters next to the Unabomber’s infamously grizzled face on an electronic billboard along the Eisenhower Expressway outside Chicago, the Heartland Institute’s home.”

The billboard went live Thursday afternoon. But by 4 p.m. Eastern time, an outcry from allies and opponents alike led the Heartland Institute’s president, Joe Bast, to say he would switch off the sign within the hour”

As a libertarian think tank funded by major corporations the Heartland Institute should be expert in publics relations. If they can make such an egregious mistake in their area of expertise – just image how mistaken they could be in scientific areas which lie outside their expertise. Climate science for example.

As the Guardian said – how could they have got it so wrong?

It’s a huge back down – the institute was going to deploy images of Charles Manson, “tyrant” Fidel Castro and Osama bin Laden in future billboards. They have now cancelled these plans.

Even supporters of the Heartland Institute in the climate change sceptic/denier/contrarian communities have criticised the campaign and “Rep. F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. (R-Wis.), who was to headline the Heartland Institute’s “annual conclave of climate-change skeptics” said  he “will not participate in the upcoming climate-change conference if the Heartland Institute decides to continue this ad campaign.”

So far, our local NZ climate changer deniers appear to be trying to ignore the embarrassment. Perhaps there are some issues of free travel involved?

See also: Nine out of 10 psychos agree: Heartland’s bonkers climate billboards need company!

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Belief and morality

We humans are mentally very complex – and often contradictory in our beliefs and actions. This must be a real problem for sociologists who often rely on surveys and self-reporting of beliefs.

I have often wondered about the reliability and interpretation of survey data on religious beliefs. In particular the religion question in our own Census statistics. So I was intrigued by the results presented in the Ispos MORI survey Religious and Social Attitudes of UK Christians in 2011.” This specifically questioned people who recorded their religion as “Christian” in the 2011 UK Census.

Two questions were interesting:

1: What do you mean by “Christian.”

The questions was “Which is the one statement that best describes what being a Christian means to you personally?” Nine choices (including “prefer not to say” were provided. The figure below shows the responses.

Interesting!

Most people (65%) think the word means something about how they were brought up or their attempts to be good! And 40% simply see it as a description of their wish to be good!

While only a little over 20% interpret the word to have anything to do with the teachings of Christ or their acceptance of him!

I can’t help thinking that people use their religious “affiliation” as something to do with their reputation, rather than any meaningful understanding of ideology or specific teachings or beliefs.

2: Where do you get your morals?

Here the question asked: “When it comes to right and wrong, which of the following if any, do you most look to for guidance?” Seven choices (including “prefer no to say”) were provided. Results below.

Again, interesting!

Despite declaring themselves as “Christian” only 16% got their morality from Christian teachings and belief. This certainly undermines the argument of militant Christians who argue that because Britain is a “Christian Country” it should not have laws against discrimination against homosexuals, women, etc. And it undermines their argument for retention of existing Christian privileges in policy.

Most people claim they rely on their own inner moral sense. Personally I think that even many providing other reasons actually also rely on their own inner moral sense. How else, for example, do they determine which religious teachings and beliefs to accept and which to reject?

At first sight these two results appear contradictory. The largest fraction of Christians self-identify because they think that means they try to be good. On the other a similar fraction admit they don’t get their morality from Christian teachings or beliefs!

Conclusions

I can’t help thinking that when people answer the religion question in surveys and the census they are seeing it as a matter of reputation, not of community or beliefs. They wish to be known as good people and think self-identifying as Christian will achieve that. perhaps this attitude also explains why so few people will self-identify as “atheist” – preferring something less harmful to their reputation like “non-religious.”

This presents an educational problem for those who work to remove religious privilege in society and ensure a secular state. It also is an educational problem for those who wish that atheism, humanism, and similar non-religious identification were more acceptable. The facts are that religion has no monopoly on being good and this message needs more awareness.

Finally, the results certainly undermine  the way that militant Christian spokespersons make judgemental statements on social attitudes, argue for retention of religious privilege and attempt to justify religious discrimination against various social groups.

These leaders actually do not represent the views and beliefs of the people they claim to – those who self-identify as “Christian.”

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What has science ever done for us?

Lord Taverne. Credit: Wikipedia

Well, according to Richard Taverne it is at least partly responsible for making our society more democratic, more tolerant and more compassionate.

Lord Taverne is founding chair of Sense About Science and former Labour minister. He gave this year’s Sense About Science lecture titled: “What has science ever done for us?” (see Annual Lecture · Sense about Science).

The Guardian Science Weekly has made this lecture available as a podcast. You can download it at Science Weekly Extra podcast: What has science ever done for us? I have listened to part of the lecture and it is very thought-provoking.

Alokh Jha, on the Science Weekly blog, gives this introduction to the lecture:

Sense About Science was founded by Richard Taverne 10 years ago to further the public’s understanding of science and help scientists advocate an evidence-based society.

At the time many scientists seemed reluctant to take part in public discourse, now 5,000 have signed up with the organisation to do just that. There’s still some way to go in promoting the public understanding of science in the UK, says Taverne – alternative medicine and the national lottery are thriving, and only one of our MPs is a graduate scientist.

To mark his retirement from Sense About Science, Taverne delivered its annual lecture on Monday 23 April at the Royal Society of Medicine, which posed the question: “What has science ever done for us?”

He argues that … apart from making us wealthy, helping to feed the world, cutting infant mortality, explaining the origins of the planet and our species, letting us fly, watch television, expanding our lifespans, inventing anaesthesia … science has made us more tolerant, compassionate and democratic.

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April ’12 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking

I have included the reality check image because of a recent experience where I was accused of refusing to include a blog on this list because I disagreed with them politically. Not true! I pointed out to the blogger that he had a statcounter installed – if he allowed public access then his blog could be included (Public access is required as the system is automated). His response was that he didn’t trust his statcounter results!

OK – I have left him to stew in his own self-proclaimed superiority in visit numbers compared with other New Zealand blogs. But meanwhile I must assure bloggers that I have absolutely no interest in their politics, beliefs, ideological commitments, sexual orientation, etc. Just in obtaining an automatic objective listing of activity for New Zealand blogs. All are welcome.


Here are the rankings of New Zealand blogs with publicly available statistics for April 2012. Please note, the system is automatic and relies on blogs having sitemeters which allow public access to the stats. There are now over 260 blogs on the list, although I am weeding out those which are no longer active or have removed public access to sitemeters.

I have listed the blogs in the table below, together with monthly visits and page view numbers for April, 2012.

Meanwhile I am still keen to hear of any other blogs with publicly available sitemeter or visitor stats that I have missed. Contact me if you know of any or wish help adding publicly available stats to your bog.

You can see data for previous months at Blog Ranks

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Visit Rank Blog Visits/month Page Views/month
1 Whale oil beef hooked 324341 658652
2 Kiwiblog 276947 511943
3 The Standard 165705 382549
4 Liturgy 67821 102285
5 Throng New Zealand 65220 138848
6 The REAL Steve Gray 60654 111300
7 NewZeal 53973 71548
8 Sciblogs 52737 81015
9 The Dim-Post 45284 61674
10 li’l magoolie 38642 66055
11 Here comes the sun 38238 65528
12 No Right Turn 32356 46526
13 TUMEKE! 28959 36180
14 amiria[blog] 26557 73945
15 Uncensored 22975 44937
16 Greedy for colour 22318 34210
17 Offsetting Behaviour 20737 27929
18 Homepaddock 17212 22801
19 Music of sound 17083 29476
20 Keeping stock 16815 23572
21 Hot Topic 12724 19672
22 Open Parachute 12099 16056
23 Kiwi Cakes 11791 20294
24 Chris no-frills 11780 16604
25 Mousehouse 10412 19891
26 MandM 10263 14026
27 Rugby Tips 9573 12530
28 Code for Life 9513 13153
29 Matte Shot 9281 17532
30 New Zealand Conservative 8971 12478
31 Cluttercut 8951 14313
32 Lance Wiggs 8410 11336
33 Say Hello to my Little Friend 8210 14475
34 Socialist Aotearoa 8023 11163
35 Reading the maps 7825 11573
36 Bob McKerrow – Wayfarer 7768 11285
37 Liberation 7392 10865
38 Canterbury Atheists 7033 10240
39 Scotty Donaldson 6909 11004
40 Workers Party 6678 10213
41 roarprawn 6327 8612
42 Lindsay Mitchell 6085 8869
43 Quote Unquote 5634 8655
44 Anti-Dismal 4877 7676
45 Anglican down under 4827 7496
46 Scepticon 4614 5625
47 Avalon’s Blog 4584 7038
48 Riddled 4502 7841
49 Crime Watch 4329 6518
50 fisheye perspective 4184 5903
51 Sustain:if:able Kiwi 4127 7808
52 Goings on at the Madbush Farm 3947 5088
53 Aotearoa: A wider perspective 3755 4578
54 Ed Blog 3712 8650
55 Otagosh 3459 5450
56 Challenge Yourself to Blog# 3390 13170
57 The Fundy Post 3376 4740
58 Open Parachute @ Sciblogs 3228 3841
59 Notes from the bartender 3226 4584
60 One Furious Llama 3157 4734
61 Rodney’s Aviation Ramblings 2899 3809
62 Home education Foundation 2822 4412
63 A Bee of a Certain Age 2776 4196
64 Windy Hilltops 2747 5231
65 Teaching the Teacher 2721 3953
66 Tales from a Café Chick# 2700 4500
67 Keith Johnson Wellington NZ 2647 4416
68 The visible hand in economics 2596 2950
69 Bill Bennett 2572 3443
70 misc.ience @ Sciblogs 2558 3338
71 Today is my birthday 2546 3404
72 In a strange land 2460 2944
73 Anne Free Spirit 2400 5730
74 Hitting Metal With A Hammer 2369 3576
75 Halfdone 2298 2730
76 From the Earth’s End 2174 3710
77 Taradale Blog# 2130 3000
78 White & Black 2048 3013
79 Cimba7200′s thoughts 2034 3114
80 PM of NZ 2033 2749
81 Life of Andrew 1947 2578
82 Jo Blogs 1912 2826
83 ICT Teaching and Learning 1890 3480
84 Stitchbird 1887 3185
85 eyeCONTACT 1800 2823
86 True Paradigm 1736 2478
87 goNZo Freakpower Brains Trust 1728 2783
88 Infectious thoughts 1664 1945
89 Blessed Economist 1649 2649
90 Write to travel 1627 2463
91 Show your workings 1576 2080
92 Brad Heap 1551 3451
93 sticK 1496 2062
94 Ideologically impure 1488 1913
95 Against the current# 1470 3180
96 Pointless and adsurb 1453 2030
97 Helen Heath 1437 1879
98 Michael Jeans 1431 2874
99 Spatula Forum 1423 2128
100 Life is not a race to be finished first 1406 2070
101 Skeptiocon @ Sciblogs 1404 1898
102 The Genetically Insane 1397 2420
103 Looking in the square 1369 1850
104 Artichoke 1254 1609
105 Get Out Gertrude! 1242 2004
106 The Hand Mirror 1203 1468
107 Webweaver’s world 1193 1467
108 Unity Blog 1187 1744
109 Mars 2 Earth 1151 1732
110 Capitalism is bad 1141 1678
111 Ruggerblogger 1135 1966
112 Moving the crowd 1080 2910
113 Earth is my favourite planet 1079 1196
114 Dad4justice 1078 1300
115 Mountains of Our Minds# 1050 1560
116 Woman Wandering 1008 1491
117 Undeniably Atheist 977 1235
118 Family integrity 974 1282
119 Glenview 9 908 1254
120 The Secret Life of Russ  871 1359
121 Kiwi Chronicles 840 1140
122 The Kiwifruit blog 828 1362
123 Derek’s blog 822 1438
124 Room 5 @ Melville Intermediate School 810 1560
125 MacMillan.org.nz 748 1055
126 Anarchia 730 958
127 Political Dumpground 717 1041
128 ZNO 714 896
129 Carolyn’s blog 701 929
130 jo russ photo diary 700 1110
131 Tararua District Library 691 1045
132 Episto 659 1032
133 Waiology 630 835
134 Café Chick Project 365# 600 870
134 Glennis’s Blog Page# 600 840
136 MartinIsti Blog 590 1010
137 Hooked on thinking 580 908
138 UpsideBackwards 578 717
139 Bhanter.com 569 849
140 Journey to a mini me 562 1112
141 Canvassing for opinion 552 768
142 Samuel Dennis 521 587
143 Palmerston North.ifo 513 862
144 Exile in New zealand 489 755
145 Lost Soul 472 584
146 Prior Knowledge  469 546
147 Something Interesting to read 459 618
147 paikea’s blog 390 570
148 kiwi simplexity 450 597
148 Manaia Kindergarten 450 1200
150 Ellie Great 430 498
151 Planes# 420 210
151 Bibliographica# 420 1500
153 Software development and stuff 419 447
154 You’re Underthinking 409 512
155 Sam Books and Thoughts 396 570
156 Waikato Wire# 390 570
156 PIkea’s Blog 390 570
159 Room 24, 2012 330 960
159 Nelsonian’s life 330 630
161 The Well read Kitty 327 418
162 The House of Faz 321 514
163 Muffin Mum 316 463
164 Upstage 315 554
165 Toni Twiss 311 457
166 Politicalisation 303 447
167 Creative Voice# 300 1080
168 Kiwidollar.com 299 481
169 Kutarere’s Blog  297 437
170 A new life in New Zealand 295 398
171 Dragonsinger 286 355
172 Nathanael Baker 270 327
172 John Macilree’s Weblog# 270 420
172 Licia83# 270 390
175 Green is good 261 371
176 Joe Hendren 250 299
177 Korero Pt England 240 450
178 Tha Fatal Paradox 239 324
179 Shelly van Soest Artist 219 451
180 Porirua EMO 218 284
181 Stratford Aerodrome 214 308
182 Pt England Scribes 210 330
183 In this moment 203 300
184 Neil Stockley 202 257
185 Frontlawn 201 250
186 The First Fifteen @ TIS 193 348
187 At home with Rose 190 259
188 Tash McGill 189 218
189 Busy Peas 186 246
190 Science in a van blog 185 354
191 ICT in Early Education 180 330
191 Football Tragic NZ 180 270
193 LoveColour Blog 170 244
194 ah! New Year’s Resolution 169 213
195 round design 161 247
196 Tangled up in purple 160 191
197 Millenium X 153 218
198 Relatively science 143 182
198 Whitireia Journalism School 143 180
200 And all these things 134 148
201 Oracle of Okarito 129 177
202 Sleeping with books 120 180
202 Making IT Happen 120 240
202 James McKerrow – Surveyor 1834-1919# 120 150
205 Mad Young Thing 119 153
206 Islamnz.com 105 147
206 Einstein Music Journal# 105 146
208 University of Otago, Law Library Blog 101 144
209 A developing Geneticist 100 152
210 KiwiSmith Family 98 175
211 Blair for Mayor 96 126
212 SageNZ 94 112
213 The Official Ebenezer Teichelmann Blog# 90 120
214 Discovery Time 87 165
215 Kiwiaventuras 85 113
216 Island in the Pacific  81 103
217 Rob’s Blockhead Blog 71 77
218 Social Policy Bonds Blog 69 95
219 New Zealand Indian Fine Arts Society 65 98
220 SilverSpikes Photography  64 82
221 Scott & Sarah Kennedy 61 64
222 Digital learning 60 60
222 Virtual North 60 120
222 Warrington Taylor# 60 120
225 New Zealand female Firefighter calendar 56 73
225 Rest Area 300m 56 86
227 Global Village Governance  52 80
227 global village governance 52 80
229 Here I stand 51 60
229 Think Beyond 51 56
231 Surfr 46 46
231 Rambling Reflections 46 65
233 ObservatioNZ 44 48
234 Bibliophilia 42 45
235 Moments of Whimsy 40 47
236 Liminal Spaces 37 46
236 mydeology 37 37
238 ZL2UCX’s Blog 34 36
239 Emeth Elethia 30 30
239 ICTPD 30 120
239 But Now 30 60
239 Anticipating future impacts 30 30
239 Room 6 Koromatua School# 30 30
239 Chris Jillet – Mountaineer# 30 30
245 Unknown Future 23 25
246 No excuses. Just write 22 24
246 TimG_Oz Blog 22 26
248 Robtuckerpix’s Blog  15 22
249 DMP Lead Free 14 17
249 Oh Darling 14 16
251 A cat of impossible colour 10 10
251 Roger Nome’s progressive Politics 10 15
251 Fuller’s watch# 10 13
254 Moderation Blog 9 10
255 Neuseeland 6 6
256 Oracle NZ – Francisco Munoz Alvarez 3 3
257 Learning Zone 9 2 2
257 Donovan’s World 2 2

The problem with philosophy

First some light philosophical relief – Monty Python’s Football – before the serious issues

There has been a bit of a donnybrook recently over the science-philosophy conflict. (Dare we talk about a “conflict model” of the science-philosophy relationship?).

There is evidence of some accumulated antagonism on both sides. But this time the spark was some ungentlemanly comments made by Lawrence Krauss. Or perhaps the spark was the “scathing” New York Times review of his recent book (A Universe from Nothing) by David Albert (wearing his philosopher hat) – Albert’s comments were more sophisticated but nevertheless were hardly gentlemanly.

In an interview with Ross Anderson published in The Atlantic (Has Physics Made Philosophy and Religion Obsolete?) Krauss referred to “moronic philosophers  that have written about my book” and made some general criticisms of philosophy, and especially the philosophy of science as it is practised. Have a look at the interview for the details.

Then other philosophers joined the battle. Massimo Pigluicci, never one to stay away from such a stoush, retaliated with Lawrence Krauss: another physicist with an anti-philosophy complex hinting that this conflict was a lot wider than individuals, a book and its review. I am not surprised – in general I enjoy Pigluicci’s writing but feel that he throws around criticisms of scientists, and words like “scientism”, far too liberally. He sank to Krauss’s level by describing him as a “brilliant (as a physicist) moron.” But he did deal with some of the mores substantive criticisms made by Krauss. Again, refer to his article for the details.

Justin Vacula made what I thought were more unemotional criticisms of Krauss’s comment in A response to Lawrence Krauss’ comments denigrating philosophy at American Atheists’ 2012 convention. And physicist Sean Carroll recently contributed some useful comments in his post at Cosmic Variance (see A Universe from Nothing?). Actually, I recommend Carroll’s book From Eternity to Here  which deals with similar issues to those in Krauss’s book.

Diversity in philosophy

So what are we to think, especially as both sides appeared to be generalising about the other? Is the “conflict model” of the science-philosophy relationship factual, or just a myth? Have they been fated to be in continual argument since they divided centuries ago?

I think yes and no. In the sense that some schools of philosophy seem inevitably bound to conflict with science, while other schools don’t. In a real sense philosophy as a discipline is far more diverse, or divided, than is science. When one is dealing with the real world, interacting with it, testing and validating one’s ideas and theories against reality, there is less room for long-lasting divisions. On the other hand philosophy can be practised by people from an armchair, never bothering to keep up with current scientific knowledge.

Let me quickly add I am not talking about all philosophers by any means. there are many who interact and cooperate with practising scientists. Who learn from science and develop their philosophy accordingly. There can be a very fruitful and practical relationship between scientists and philosophers.

I have had an interest in the philosophy of science since my student days and early on became aware of the existence of diverse philosophical schools.  This was brought home to me when a professor gave us a lecture on “THE philosophy of science” in a chemistry lecture. What he understood by the words was quite different to what I understood by them. Since then I have thought scientists have an inbuilt suspicion of philosophy. If only because they abhor the idea of imposition of ideological dogma on their research justified as “the philosophy of science.” We have seen it before, haven’t we?

So, being very much aware of this “problem of philosophy”* – 0f the existence of different trends, often with ideological tinges, I was relieved to see that Krauss actually apologised for his blanket criticisms of philosophy in his Scientific American columnThe Consolation of Philosophy.” This was subheaded “An update by the author of “A Universe from Nothing” on his thoughts, as a theoretical physicist, about the value of the discipline of philosophy.”

I like the way he finished the column:

“So, to those philosophers I may have unjustly offended by seemingly blanket statements about the field, I apologize.  I value your intelligent conversation and the insights of anyone who thinks carefully about our universe and who is willing to guide their thinking based on the evidence of reality.   To those who wish to impose their definition of reality abstractly, independent of emerging empirical knowledge and the changing questions that go with it, and call that either philosophy or theology, I would say this:  Please go on talking to each other, and let the rest of us get on with the goal of learning more about nature.”

I agree with him.


* Before some of the philosophically-inclined take umbrage at my title “The problem of philosophy” please note I use it in the spirit of physicist Lee Smolin’s book title “The Trouble With Physics.” That was not dissing physics – far from it. He was discussing some issues within current physics and the  problems they create.


Puddles and “fine-tuning”

I like this image. It really brings home the implications of Douglas Adams‘ comment ridiculing creationist assumptions.

Image credit: kingofgeek.

It also puts the so-called “fine-tuning” arguments in their place. These have got the situation “arse about face.”

Far from the whole universe being fine-tuned to produce intelligent animals like us, we are inevitably “fine-tuned” by our environment. Natural selection has produced organisms which are tuned to survive in the existing universe (or our part of it).

It couldn’t be otherwise.


Strangely the Biologic Institute (the creationist Discovery Institute “research arm”) also noted this comment of Douglas Adams. Their response: “Well, if a puddle actually woke up and thought anything, it would be entitled to that opinion.”

I think they missed the point.

See also:
Bafflingly inane post at Biologic Institute
Discovery Institute: What Are They Thinking?


Great science talks in Auckland

There’s some great talks coming up in the Auckland Writers and Readers Festival involving science writers. Unfortunately they are selling out quick – so if you are interested I recommend booking right away.

Here are the details:

A UNIVERSE FROM NOTHING

In the mere span of a human lifetime, our understanding of the universe has changed completely.

Celebrated prize-winning scientist, public intellectual and accomplished speaker Professor Lawrence Krauss is one of the leading figures in this golden age of cosmology.

Currently based at the Arizona State University, he is the author of The Physics of Star Trek (1995), Quantum Man: Richard Feynman’s Life in Science (2010) and, most recently, the New York Times bestseller A Universe from Nothing (2011).

Krauss speaks with Dr. Grant Christie about the big bang, the expanding universe, the rich and mysterious world of cosmology and our place on the sidelines.

Professor Krauss is in New Zealand as a Hood Fellow in association with The University of Auckland.

Event Details

Book this event

  • Date: Friday 11 May 2012
  • Time: 05:30 p.m. – 06:30 p.m.
  • Venue: ASB THEATRE, AOTEA CENTRE
  • Category: SCIENCE AND RELIGION
  • Price: Earlybird $20, Standard $25, Patrons $16, Students $12.50

THE GOD MATTER

PLEASE NOTE: THIS EVENT IS SOLD OUT

American physicist and intellectual Lawrence Krauss, in his new book A Universe from Nothing (2012), argues that quantum physics has clearly established no God is required for the creation of the universe.

In an age where public debate rages on the teaching of science vs religion, an argument that Krauss is at the forefront of in America, is religion a valid view or mere superstition, and does it matter either way?

Krauss comes together with theologian Lloyd Geering to discuss the existence of a deity, the need for God in the 21st century and whether the religious beliefs that have underpinned our societies for so long are dangerous or useful in finding meaning and shaping a future.

Chaired by Tom Bishop.

Professor Krauss is in New Zealand as a Hood Fellow in association with the University of Auckland.

  • Date: Saturday 12 May 2012
  • Time: 04:00 p.m. – 05:00 p.m.
  • Venue: LOWER NZI, AOTEA CENTRE
  • Category: SCIENCE AND RELIGION
  • Price: Earlybird $20, Standard $25, Patrons $16, Students $12.50

THEM + US

Free Event

Danny Vendramini’s book Them + Us: How Neanderthal Predation Created Modern Humans expounds the controversial theory that Eurasian Neanderthals hunted, killed and cannibalised early humans for 50,000 years, with modern human physiology, sexuality, aggression, propensity for inter-group violence and human nature all emerging as a direct consequence.

It’s a theory that seems both preposterous and intriguing, taking, as it does, the core of Darwinian biology and cladding it with challenging ideas about trauma, the genetic transmission of emotions and the origin of instincts.

An illustrated talk chaired by historian Paul Moon

Supported by the Australia Council for the Arts.

Event Details

THE WOMAN WHO CHANGED HER BRAIN

Until recently, theories of neuroscience have posited that the brain can not be changed but the emerging field of neuroplasticity is challenging this view.

In The Woman Who Changed Her Brain (2012), Canadian Barbara Arrowsmith Young reveals how she developed a series of innovative brain exercises to conquer her severe learning disabilities.

She speaks with Michael Corballis about overcoming major brain dysfunction and some of the clinical mysteries and fascinating stories she has encountered in her research.

Event Details

Book this event

  • Date: Sunday 13 May 2012
  • Time: 04:00 p.m. – 05:00 p.m.
  • Venue: LOWER NZI ROOM, AOTEA CENTRE
  • Category: SCIENCE AND RELIGION
  • Price: Earlybird $20, Standard $25, Patrons $16, Students $12.50

Science denial is a diversion from the real problems

Here’s a short but informative discussion between Naomi Oreskes and Australian politician Nick Minchin. He is known for his denial of human inputs to climate change and for attacking the science. Oreskes suggests to him that his reasons for denial are not scientific. That he should accept the science and get on a deal with the political and financial issues which really motivate him.

This is an extract from the documentary “I Can Change Your Mind About..Climate.” You an watch the film on line.

This reminds me of the comment made by a well-known US climate change denier, Senator James Inhofe (R-OK). When debating his position, and his attacks on science, with a TV interviewer he made this remarkable admission:

I was actually on your side of this issue when I was chairing that committee and I first heard about this. I thought it must be true until I found out what it cost.”

In short, learning about the (supposed) high cost of the solution is what turned him from a believer in climate science to a denier.

This is something which I seem to have to learn again and again in my debates with those attacking the science of climate change and climate scientists. Although they attack the science their real motivating beliefs are political and financial.

It’s an interesting psychological phenomenon, and an unpleasant political one seeing they are needlessly  badmouthing innocent and honest scientists.

Naomi Oreskes has often lectured and written on  science denial. Her book Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming is well worth reading.

I also recommend a recent interview with her on Point Of Inquiry: Naomi Oreskes – Neoliberalism and the Denial of Global Warming

Thanks to: Deniers in Denial about Why they Deny.

See also: Q&A Climate Debate the ABC programme screened after the above documentary.


When the “best explanation” is the worst explanation

Credit: Is the God Hypothesis a good explanation? (see below)

I sometimes get into debates about scientific issues with what could be called “bush philosophers.” People who have learned a little (sometimes even a lot) about philosophy but have no real idea of how science works or proper concepts of the philosophy of science. Consequently they sometimes end up making claims, or advancing arguments and justification, about reality which are nothing more than fanciful from a scientific viewpoint.

One justification I commonly hear from such people, particularly theologians,  philosophers of religion and those under their influence, is the “inference to the best explanation.” I recognise that this is a recognised philosophical and epistemic process – it’s just that every time I hear that justification I know from experience I will be presented with a bit of motivated “reasoning” or “logic” to justify the proponents strong belief and ridicule different beliefs.

Inference to best explanation and its problems

For example, “Andrew” (sorry don’t know any more about him) claimed to be using the  “Inference to the Most Favored Hypothesis” in his post Comparing the Old & New Teleological Arguments. Boiled down he believes that observed “fine-tuning” of physical constants in the universe is “more probable given the hypothesis of theism as opposed to” an atheistic one. Similarly a local philosopher of religion, Glenn, declares a belief in a god based on this postulate being the “best explanation of the existence of moral facts.” For good measure he in the end adds appeals to a god as the “best explanation of the origin of the universe,” “the fine tuning of the Universe for the existence of intelligent life,” “the objectivity and transcendence of beauty” and “the best explanation for the historical facts concerning Jesus of Nazareth, along with any arguments for the reliability of Scripture.” (see Occam’s Razor and the Moral Argument for Theism).

Whew – you can see that “the inference to the best explanation” does a lot of the heavy lifting for the theologically inclined. Or at least their “bush philosophers.” Problem is that these opportunist users of this “inference to the best explanation” ignore the problems that commonly haunt the method. Problems that have been well understood.

For example, Alexander Bird, in his chapter in The Routledge Companion to Epistemology describes the problems that are relevant here:

  • Underconsideration – not considering all relevant explanations available. How can one determine the “best” explanation if the one closest to the truth is not even considered.
  • Subjective judgement“explanatory goodness is too subjective a quality to be correlated with objective truth.” Such judgements, like beauty, are in the eye of the beholder.

I think the above examples of theistic use of “inference to the best explanation” illustrate the mistakes of underconsideration and subjectivity in spades. From the perspective of a scientist who is used to inference, to arguments and to comparing hypotheses or “explanations” some things stick out like a sore thumb when the theologically inclined resort to this inference:

1:No real testing against reality.

They rely purely on argument, reasoning or logic – motivated argument, reasoning and logic  at that. If facts or evidence are referred to this is usually cherry-picked, distorted or exaggerated. And there is never any idea of producing an hypothesis or explanation for the purpose of testing against reality. One is asked to accept the idea purely on argument. It’s like the buyer of a car being refused a test drive.

Any explanation worthy of the name must surely make predictions about the real world, and preferable testable predictions. How else can we make anything like an objective judgement. How can we compare a number of available explanations for their real explanatory ability?

2: The favoured explanation is usually vague

Of course the favoured explanation is always some form of “god did it.” Inevitably the concept of the god is pretty open ended or vaguely described. There is never any question that the god hypothesis itself could possibly be tested. Quite the opposite. When any testing is suggested ad hoc adjustments are rapidly made to the hypothesis to ensure it remains untestable.

As for the specific explanations – this always seems to be left at a level of some sort of magic. Their god clicked her fingers and the universe came into existence, the appropriate values of physical constants were chosen, objective moral truths were declared, etc. Never any mechanism. One can’t even get the picture of a bearded and robed god adjusting the knobs on his universe-creating machine so as to guarantee the evolution of intelligent life.

Any “explanation” comprising such vagueness is not a real explanation. Serious explanations should contained structured hypotheses, using existing knowledge, suggesting observations, making predictions. And it should have some degree of plausibility, credibility, even if some aspects still await scientific verification.

3: All reasonable candidate explanations are not considered.

Because the prime motivation is to provide an argument for their own pet belief there is no real interest in considering all the possible explanations that can be inferred. In fact, those making the argument may not even be aware of existing candidate explanations and may lump them all into a generalisations such as the “atheist explanation.”

Usually this is bad enough when admitting there are scientific alternative candidates. But I would have thought if you are going to propose an explanation which involving your own preferred god, you should also include explanations which involve other gods or beings. Explanations based on myths of other religions.

The candidate “explanations” available for comparison and judging would be numerous indeed.

4: God-of-the gaps worst explanation

In effect the vagueness and lack of structure common to such theistic “best explanations” mean they boil down to the god-of-the gaps. Anything they don’t understand can be “explained” by postulating their god. No mechanism required, no testing against reality possible. And no real consideration of alternative explanations. Even though these alternatives may have structure, be more plausible or credible, and can offer ways of testing or verification through their predictions.

Inevitably scientific explanations must fare better than such theistic explanations. Without really trying. Victor Stenger expressed it this way in his recent book God and the Folly of Faith: The Incompatibility of Science and Religion:

“we can defeat any proposed God-of-the-gaps argument by simply providing a plausible natural explanation consistent with our best existing knowledge to fill the gap. That argument need not be proven.”

See also:
Is the God Hypothesis a good explanation?
Historical method – Wikipedia

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